Refreshing Africa’s future

This research paper evaluates Africa's prospects for achieving universal access to safe water, adequate sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) by 2030, as outlined in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the authors compare a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) against two alternative scenarios: 'Universal Access' (an aggressive push for 97% coverage) and 'Balancing WASH' (a moderate approach based on 2015 baselines). The analysis highlights the massive infrastructure investment required, the potential for significant economic and human development gains, and the risk of spending trade-offs that could undermine health and education goals.

• Africa is not currently on track to meet the targets of SDG 6 for universal and equitable access to safe water, sanitation, and hygiene by 2030.
• On the 'Current Path' forecast, the absolute number of people in Africa without access to safe water and sanitation will increase between 2016 and 2030 due to high population growth, despite percentage improvements. By 2030, 365 million people are forecast to lack safe water and 755 million will lack sanitation.
• The 'Universal Access' scenario, which aims for a 97% access threshold, would require an additional cumulative investment of over US$122 billion in infrastructure from 2016 to 2030. This would necessitate annual growth rates in water (2.0 percentage points) and sanitation (3.7 percentage points) that far exceed historical MDG records.
• Aggressive investment in WASH infrastructure can yield high economic returns. In the 'Universal Access' scenario, the total boost to Africa's GDP is estimated at US$526 billion, which is more than four times the additional infrastructure cost.
• Pursuing universal WASH access through domestic funding may create severe spending trade-offs, potentially diverting resources from health and education budgets and hindering long-term human capital formation.
• The 'Balancing WASH' scenario offers a more realistic alternative, costing only 30% of the 'Universal Access' scenario (US$36 billion in additional spending) while still providing approximately 50% of the human development benefits for low-access countries.
• WASH infrastructure has a direct impact on human development, particularly in reducing infant mortality, child malnutrition, and deaths from diarrhoeal disease, with the greatest gains occurring in countries with the lowest initial access.
• Overseas development assistance (ODA) is unlikely to be sufficient to meet the full scope of the SDGs. While WASH receives about 7.6% of total aid to Africa, the investment required for universal targets would necessitate more than doubling current ODA levels overnight.

APA

Markle, A., & Donnenfeld, Z. (2016). Refreshing Africa’s future. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf

Chicago

Markle, Alanna, and Zachary Donnenfeld. Refreshing Africa’s future. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markle |first1=Alanna |last2=Donnenfeld |first2=Zachary |title=Refreshing Africa’s future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markle2016refreshing, author = {Markle, Alanna and Donnenfeld, Zachary}, title = {{Refreshing Africa’s future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }