Refreshing Africa’s future

The report finds that Africa is not on track to meet Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG 6) for universal WASH access by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system, the authors analyze three paths: a 'Current Path' where few countries meet targets; a 'Universal Access' scenario requiring aggressive investment; and a 'Balancing WASH' scenario that prioritizes high-impact, lower-cost improvements. While universal access offers the highest economic and health gains, it requires an additional US$122 billion in infrastructure spending and may force detrimental trade-offs in health and education budgets. The 'Balancing WASH' approach is presented as a more realistic alternative, delivering approximately 50% of the human development benefits of universal access at only 30% of the cost (US$36 billion).

• Africa is not currently on track to meet the targets for universal and equitable access to safe water, adequate sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) by 2030.
• On the 'Current Path' forecast, the absolute number of people in Africa without WASH access will increase by 2030 due to high population growth, with 365 million people lacking safe water and 755 million lacking sanitation.
• The 'Universal Access' scenario requires an unprecedented growth rate in access: water access must grow by 2.0 percentage points annually and sanitation by 3.7 percentage points, rates that largely exceed historical MDG records.
• Achieving universal WASH access would require a cumulative increase in infrastructure spending of over US$122 billion from 2016 to 2030, with Group C countries (those with the lowest 2015 baselines) absorbing 76.5% (US$93 billion) of this additional cost.
• Aggressive pursuit of universal WASH access may lead to significant domestic spending trade-offs, potentially reducing budgets for health and education, which could hinder long-term human capital formation.
• Heavy investment in WASH infrastructure yields high economic returns; the 'Universal Access' scenario is forecast to add US$526 billion to Africa's GDP between 2016 and 2030, more than four times the cost of the additional infrastructure investment.
• The 'Balancing WASH' scenario offers a more realistic path, requiring only US$36 billion in additional infrastructure spending while delivering roughly 50% of the human development gains of the Universal Access scenario for Group C countries.

APA

Markle, A., & Donnenfeld, Z. (2016). Refreshing Africa’s future. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf

Chicago

Markle, Alanna, and Zachary Donnenfeld. Refreshing Africa’s future. Institute for Security Studies, 2016. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markle |first1=Alanna |last2=Donnenfeld |first2=Zachary |title=Refreshing Africa’s future |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=June 2016 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markle2016refreshing, author = {Markle, Alanna and Donnenfeld, Zachary}, title = {{Refreshing Africa’s future}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2016}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF17.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }