Pathways to Reduce Petroleum Use on the West Coast

The report analyzes pathways for California, Oregon, and Washington to reduce transportation petroleum use by 50% by 2030. It identifies a 'Half the Oil' (HtO) Pathway that distributes reductions across travel demand management, vehicle efficiency, and alternative fuel deployment. While existing policies are projected to reduce consumption by 24% in California and 8% in Oregon and Washington by 2030, achieving the 50% target requires extending and accelerating these measures. The analysis finds that relying on a single category of strategy is insufficient to meet the target, and that Washington faces greater challenges due to a lack of enforceable alternative fuel and zero-emission vehicle policies.

• Existing transportation policies, such as fuel economy and tailpipe greenhouse gas standards, are projected to reduce petroleum consumption by 2030 compared to 2015 levels by 24 percent in California and 8 percent in both Oregon and Washington.
• A balanced 'Half the Oil' (HtO) Pathway can achieve a 50 percent reduction in petroleum consumption by 2030 by distributing reductions across three categories: travel demand reductions, vehicle efficiency improvements, and alternative fuel deployment.
• Relying on a single strategy category is unlikely to reach the 50 percent reduction target. Alternative cases focusing individually on efficiency/electrification, biofuels, or land use planning yielded petroleum reductions between 31–45 percent in California, 14–39 percent in Oregon, and 14–38 percent in Washington.
• Achieving the HtO target in Washington is considered more difficult than in California or Oregon because Washington lacks enforceable policies to promote alternative fuels, such as a zero emission vehicle program or a low carbon fuel standard.
• The HtO Pathway for California estimates greenhouse gas emission reductions of 37–43 percent from a 2015 baseline, while Oregon's pathway estimates 31–39 percent and Washington's estimates 42–45 percent.
• Critical components for meeting the HtO target include extending vehicle efficiency standards beyond current sunsets, increasing ZEV sales targets, and expanding the use of alternative fuels beyond current LCFS or CFP illustrative scenarios.
• Ancillary strategies, such as the use of fuel-efficient replacement tires and truck platooning, can collectively reduce petroleum consumption by more than 200 million gallons in California, representing 5% of the reductions needed to improve upon the business-as-usual scenario.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2016). Pathways to Reduce Petroleum Use on the West Coast. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/01/ICF-Half-the-Oil-CA-WA-OR.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Pathways to Reduce Petroleum Use on the West Coast. 2016. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/01/ICF-Half-the-Oil-CA-WA-OR.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Pathways to Reduce Petroleum Use on the West Coast |date=January 2016 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/01/ICF-Half-the-Oil-CA-WA-OR.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2016pathways, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Pathways to Reduce Petroleum Use on the West Coast}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2016}, month = jan, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/01/ICF-Half-the-Oil-CA-WA-OR.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }