Africa’s current and future stability

The paper identifies a rise in conflict events and fatalities in Africa since 2010, concentrated in five countries: Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, CAR, and Somalia. It uses the International Futures modelling system to project three scenarios to 2063: a 'Base Case' of continued moderate growth, an 'African Renaissance' of inclusive growth and stability, and 'Politics of the Belly' characterized by elite exploitation and instability. The authors argue that governance is the primary driver of stability and that while democratisation is a general trend, the transition period often increases the risk of violence.

• There has been a clear increase in the number of conflict events per day in Africa since 2010, with a corresponding rise in conflict-related fatalities.
• Conflict-related deaths in Africa are highly concentrated; Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, Central African Republic (CAR), and Somalia accounted for over 75% of all such fatalities in 2014.
• The Horn of Africa/East Africa is currently the subregion with the highest number of conflict-related deaths, primarily driven by events in Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan.
• Southern Africa is identified as the most stable subregion on the continent, being the only one to experience a decline in conflict during the analyzed period.
• The 'Base Case' scenario forecasts an average annual GDP growth of 6.2% until 2063, with poverty declining slowly and inequality remaining high.
• The 'African Renaissance' scenario projects a dramatic reduction in extreme poverty, effectively eliminating it by 2047, and an increase in GDP per person to $52,250 by 2063.
• The 'Politics of the Belly' scenario envisions a future of elite exploitation and corruption, where an 'arc of instability' spreads from Senegal to Somalia by 2020, and 18% of the population lives in extreme poverty by 2063.
• The authors argue that governance is the most critical driver of stability, noting that 'anocracies' (states neither fully autocratic nor fully democratic) are significantly more prone to civil conflict.
• While Africa is trending toward democratisation, the transition from autocracy to democracy is often unstable and prone to violence.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Hedden, S. (2014). Africa’s current and future stability. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper274V2.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Steve Hedden. Africa’s current and future stability. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper274V2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Hedden |first2=Steve |title=Africa’s current and future stability |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper274V2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2014africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Hedden, Steve}, title = {{Africa’s current and future stability}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper274V2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }