Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting model to analyze the projected rise in road traffic fatalities in Africa through 2050. It argues that road safety is a critical development issue, as rapid motorization often outpaces infrastructure and regulatory improvements. The document compares a 'base case' forecast with an 'improved scenario' where African countries stabilize death rates at current continental averages, demonstrating that aggressive road safety interventions could save millions of lives and provide a significant boost to the continent's GDP.

• Africa is projected to be disproportionately affected by global traffic deaths by 2050, potentially accounting for over 1 million annual deaths, which represents 35 per cent of the global total.
• Road traffic accidents are identified as a development issue because increases in vehicle ownership often occur without corresponding improvements in infrastructure and safety legislation, creating a lag where fatalities typically spike.
• Vulnerable road users (VRUs), including pedestrians and cyclists, account for 46 per cent of global traffic deaths, yet most safety interventions focus on private vehicles rather than these high-risk groups.
• The document highlights specific national interventions: Nigeria implemented a bus rapid transit system via the Lagos Metropolitan Transport Authority in 2009; Ghana used speed bumps and rumble strips to reduce fatalities by 55 per cent; Kenya implemented mandatory seatbelts and speed governors; and Tanzania provided trauma-team training for medical staff.
• Comparing a base case to an improved scenario, the IFs model suggests that stabilizing traffic death rates at the current continental average (32 per 100,000 people) could prevent 4.2 million deaths and save 144 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Africa by 2050.
• Reducing traffic fatalities could lead to a cumulative discounted GDP increase of nearly US$ 234 billion for Africa by 2050, primarily driven by a larger labor force (80 per cent of the growth) and productivity gains (20 per cent).
• The economic gains from improved road safety would allow for increased government spending, with projected cumulative increases of US$ 53.47 billion in revenue, US$ 7.2 billion for healthcare, and US$ 11.1 billion for education by 2050.

APA

Eshbaugh, M., Maly, G., Moyer, J. D., & Torkelson, E. (2012). Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf

Chicago

Eshbaugh, Mark, Greg Maly, Jonathan D Moyer, and Erin Torkelson. Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Eshbaugh |first1=Mark |last2=Maly |first2=Greg |last3=Moyer |first3=Jonathan D |last4=Torkelson |first4=Erin |title=Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 March 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{eshbaugh2012putting, author = {Eshbaugh, Mark and Maly, Greg and Moyer, Jonathan D and Torkelson, Erin}, title = {{Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }