Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa

The document argues that road traffic accidents are a critical development issue in Africa, with fatalities forecast to rise as motorisation increases without corresponding infrastructure improvements. By comparing a 'base case' forecast with an 'improved scenario' where death rates are stabilised at the current continental average of 32 per 100,000 people, the authors estimate that Africa could prevent 4.2 million deaths and add US$ 234 billion to its GDP by 2050. The brief highlights that the economic gains, primarily driven by a larger labour force, would far outweigh the estimated costs of intervention, which range from US$ 1.7 billion to US$ 24 billion.

• Africa is projected to be disproportionately affected by global traffic deaths; by 2050, the continent is forecast to account for over 1 million annual deaths, representing 35 per cent of the global total.
• Road traffic accidents are identified as a development issue because increases in vehicle ownership often precede the public expenditure required for infrastructure and safety legislation, leading to a peak in fatalities during the middle-income stage of development.
• Vulnerable road users (VRUs), including pedestrians and cyclists, account for 46 per cent of global traffic deaths, yet most safety interventions focus on private vehicles rather than these high-risk groups.
• Comparing a base case to an improved scenario shows that Africa could prevent 4.2 million deaths and save 144 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) between 2010 and 2050.
• The improved road safety scenario is estimated to increase Africa's cumulative discounted GDP by nearly US$ 234 billion by 2050, with approximately 80 per cent of this growth resulting from an increased labour supply.
• Specific countries would see the highest reductions in fatalities under the improved scenario, led by Nigeria (689,000), Ethiopia (566,000), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (332,000).
• The cost of implementing these safety interventions in Africa is estimated to range between US$ 1.7 billion and US$ 24 billion, which is significantly lower than the projected GDP gains.

APA

Eshbaugh, M., Maly, G., Moyer, J. D., & Torkelson, E. (2012). Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf

Chicago

Eshbaugh, Mark, Greg Maly, Jonathan D Moyer, and Erin Torkelson. Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2012. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Eshbaugh |first1=Mark |last2=Maly |first2=Greg |last3=Moyer |first3=Jonathan D |last4=Torkelson |first4=Erin |title=Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=27 March 2012 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{eshbaugh2012putting, author = {Eshbaugh, Mark and Maly, Greg and Moyer, Jonathan D and Torkelson, Erin}, title = {{Putting the brakes on road traffic fatalities in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2012}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/PolBriefAF3.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }