Reducing poverty in Africa

The research finds that most African countries are unlikely to meet the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030. Using the International Futures (IFs) model, the authors argue for a more achievable continental goal of reducing extreme poverty to below 20% by 2030 and below 3% by 2063. The paper emphasizes that poverty reduction requires a combination of pro-poor economic growth, social assistance, human development, and progressive social change, noting that policies must be tailored to individual country contexts due to varying initial conditions and poverty gaps.

• The majority of African countries are forecast to fail the World Bank's target of reducing extreme poverty to below 3% by 2030 if current dynamics remain unchanged.
• The authors propose a tiered continental target for the African Union: reducing extreme poverty (income below US$1.25) to below 20% by 2030, below 10% by 2045, and below 3% by 2063.
• A significant portion of the poor in Africa are likely to be chronically poor, with approximately 207 million Africans living below the severe poverty line of US$0.70 a day.
• The burden of extreme poverty is highly concentrated; by 2030, 70.7% of the continent's extreme poverty is forecast to be concentrated in just 10 countries, increasing to 75.7% by 2063.
• Combined interventions (social assistance, pro-poor growth, human development, and social change) could reduce extreme poverty by 6.5 percentage points by 2030, meaning 117.9 million fewer people in extreme poverty.
• Country-specific factors such as initial inequality, poverty gaps, and population growth rates create significant differences in how countries respond to poverty reduction efforts.
• The 2011 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) revisions by the World Bank's ICP generally lowered initial poverty estimates for Africa but did not significantly change the long-term trend of the base case forecasts.

APA

Turner, S., Cilliers, J., & Hughes, B. (2014). Reducing poverty in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AFP_10ReducingPoverty.pdf

Chicago

Turner, Sara, Jakkie Cilliers, and Barry Hughes. Reducing poverty in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AFP_10ReducingPoverty.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Turner |first1=Sara |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Hughes |first3=Barry |title=Reducing poverty in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AFP_10ReducingPoverty.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{turner2014reducing, author = {Turner, Sara and Cilliers, Jakkie and Hughes, Barry}, title = {{Reducing poverty in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AFP_10ReducingPoverty.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }