paper288-64c190369f6eabf3.pdf

This research paper uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to evaluate Namibia's progress toward the goals of Vision 2030 and the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP4). The author analyzes population trends and economic drivers, identifying physical capital—specifically basic infrastructure—as the primary constraint on long-term growth. The paper presents three scenarios (Current Path, Infrastructure Access, and Leave No Namibian Out) to illustrate the trade-offs between investing in physical infrastructure and human capital.

• Namibia is unlikely to meet the aggressive economic growth targets set by Vision 2030, which aims for a GDP growth rate of 6.2% and a GDP per capita growth rate of 4.4%. The IFs model forecasts a GDP growth rate of 5% and a GDP per capita (PPP) growth rate of 2.2% until 2030.
• Physical capital is currently the most significant constraint on Namibia's economic growth, driven by poor performance in traditional infrastructure indicators such as electricity, sanitation, and transportation. Conversely, human capital, bolstered by high government investment in education, is the largest positive contributor to growth.
• Namibia faces severe challenges in sanitation and electricity access. Only 32% of the population has access to improved sanitation facilities, and less than half of the population—and only 17% of the rural population—have access to electricity.
• There is a strong link between poor infrastructure and health outcomes in Namibia. Low access to water and sanitation contributes to high rates of communicable diseases and malnutrition; 13.2% of children under five are malnourished, 37% of the population is undernourished, and 23% of children are stunted.
• Namibia is characterized by extreme income inequality, ranking as one of the most unequal countries globally. Over half of the country's income is concentrated within the top 10% of the population, and approximately 21% of the population lived in extreme poverty in 2015.
• The 'Current Path' scenario suggests that while the economy will grow and education levels will rise (average adult schooling reaching 8.2 years by 2030), many Vision 2030 targets will remain unmet, and 48% of the population will still lack improved sanitation by 2030.
• The 'Infrastructure Access' scenario demonstrates that increasing infrastructure spending to 5.4% of GDP by 2026 could lead to 89% sanitation access and 91% electricity access by 2030. However, this creates a trade-off by reducing education spending, which eventually turns human capital into a net negative contribution to economic growth.
• The 'Leave No Namibian Out' scenario, which balances infrastructure investment with maintained high education spending and social grants, results in a larger economy by 2030 (6.7% larger than the Current Path) and improved democracy and freedom, though extreme poverty and inequality remain deep-seated challenges.
• Population forecasts for 2030 vary by model: the IFs model predicts 3.2 million people, the Namibia Statistics Agency (NSA) predicts just under 3 million, and the UN Population Division (UNPD) predicts 3.3 million.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). paper288-64c190369f6eabf3.pdf. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper288.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. paper288-64c190369f6eabf3.pdf. n.d. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper288.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=paper288-64c190369f6eabf3.pdf |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper288.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndpaper28864c190369f6eabf3pdf, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{paper288-64c190369f6eabf3.pdf}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/Paper288.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }