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This research paper describes the co-production of Climate Risk Narratives (CRNs) for Windhoek, Namibia, as part of the FRACTAL project. These narratives translate complex climate projections into non-technical, plausible future scenarios to help city decision-makers integrate climate risks into urban planning and policy, specifically influencing the city's Integrated Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (ICCSAP).

This report provides a detailed development forecast for Namibia up to 2043, utilizing the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform. It outlines a 'Current Path' based on existing policies and evaluates several sectoral scenarios—including stability, health, agriculture, and education—to determine their potential impact on GDP per capita and extreme poverty. The report concludes with a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which aggregates these interventions to project a significantly higher economic trajectory and a substantial reduction in poverty.

This research paper uses the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system to evaluate Namibia's progress toward the goals of Vision 2030 and the Fourth National Development Plan (NDP4). The author analyzes population trends and economic drivers, identifying physical capital—specifically basic infrastructure—as the primary constraint on long-term growth. The paper presents three scenarios (Current Path, Infrastructure Access, and Leave No Namibian Out) to illustrate the trade-offs between investing in physical infrastructure and human capital.