Why strategic foresight matters for Africa

The paper advocates for the use of strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis to help African governments navigate complex development trade-offs and set realistic targets. It highlights the International Futures (IFs) model as a tool for scenario analysis and evidence-based planning, using it to critique the feasibility of certain Agenda 2063 goals, such as the eradication of extreme poverty by 2030 and the 'silencing the guns' initiative by 2020. The author emphasizes that such foresight is dependent on improving the quality and availability of reliable data across the continent.

• Africa's economic growth is projected to remain strong, with an annual average rate between 5% and 7% over the next 15 years, exceeding the world and OECD averages, though remaining below the BRICs group.
• The goal of eradicating extreme poverty in every African country by 2030 is considered unrealistic for many states based on IFs base case forecasts, which suggest that by 2063, approximately 310 million people (10% of the population) will still live in extreme poverty.
• The African Union's aspirational target to end all wars in Africa by 2020, known as 'silencing the guns', is described as decidedly unachievable given current conflict dynamics.
• While the absence of war is necessary, it is insufficient for development; improved governance is identified as the primary 'game changer' for increasing access to electricity and other human development outcomes.
• African health systems face a 'double burden of disease', where the prevalence of non-communicable diseases is expected to rise significantly, potentially accounting for 60% of deaths by 2050 without policy changes.
• Strategic foresight and integrated policy analysis are hindered by systemic data challenges in sub-Saharan Africa, including a lack of independence in national statistical offices, inaccurate data, and a failure to make data publicly available.

APA

Schünemann, J. (2014). Why strategic foresight matters for Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF12_9Oct2014.pdf

Chicago

Schünemann, Julia. Why strategic foresight matters for Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2014. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF12_9Oct2014.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schünemann |first1=Julia |title=Why strategic foresight matters for Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2014 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF12_9Oct2014.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schnemann2014why, author = {Schünemann, Julia}, title = {{Why strategic foresight matters for Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2014}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/AF12_9Oct2014.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }