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The 1969 OAU Refugee Convention has been ratified by 47 of 55 AU member states and is credited with expanding the legal definition of a refugee to include those fleeing external aggression or public order disturbances. Despite its wide domestication, implementation is hindered by xenophobia, security concerns, and declining international funding. The report argues that the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) and its Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) can reinforce the Convention by promoting responsibility sharing, regional approaches, and socio-economic inclusion of refugees.

The report analyzes the rise of an insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, attributing it to long-term government neglect, high youth unemployment, and social exclusion. It details the group's evolution from targeting security installations to committing atrocities against civilians, while criticizing the government's 'extrajudicial state of emergency' and human rights violations.

The document examines the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF), arguing that while they offer a progressive 'whole of society' approach to refugee integration, their non-binding nature and flawed funding mechanisms hinder their effectiveness in Africa. It highlights a gap between liberal policy and implementation in South Africa and the failure of the CRRF in Tanzania due to financial burdens. The authors advocate for a results-based management system and a stronger link between security, development, and migration to address the root causes of displacement on the continent.

The report evaluates ten Global Resilience Partnership (GRP) Round 1 projects, which supported over 5 million people. Key findings highlight the effectiveness of 'layering' interventions, participatory design, and close government partnerships in increasing resilience. Successes include the deployment of early warning systems reaching 1.2 million people in Uganda, the empowerment of urban slum women in South Asia, and the implementation of road water harvesting benefiting 3 million people in Ethiopia. The synthesis emphasizes that combining traditional tools like microcredit with innovative digital technology and inclusive social strategies creates sustainable, transformational change.

The document examines how 'migration' and 'development' are defined and measured in quantitative research, highlighting a gap in evidence regarding migration aspirations, failed attempts, and involuntary immobility. It discusses the challenges of establishing causal links due to endogeneity—specifically reverse causality, self-selection, and omitted variables—and evaluates experimental and non-experimental methods to address these biases. The paper advocates for a holistic, multi-dimensional approach to development that moves beyond economic metrics to include social, institutional, and environmental outcomes.

The document examines the intersection of climate change, security, and adaptation, arguing that climate impacts act as 'threat multipliers' that can destabilize states and international relations. It highlights risks such as transboundary water conflicts, food insecurity, Arctic geopolitical shifts, and mass migration. The authors warn against 'maladaptation'—adaptation efforts that inadvertently increase inequality or tension—and advocate for a 'preventive' approach. Key recommendations include creating multidimensional early warning systems, implementing risk-tolerant and 'nexus' financing for insecure regions, and ensuring adaptation strategies are timely, strategically targeted, and informed by political economy analysis to avoid exacerbating existing social and political frictions.

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

The August 2019 Peace & Security Council Report examines the African Union's (AU) struggle to define 'unconstitutional changes of government' in the context of popular uprisings in Algeria and Sudan. It highlights the risks of increasing foreign military presence, particularly in the Horn of Africa, and the resulting rivalry between global powers like the US and China. The report also advocates for the inclusion of women in Sudan's peace process and warns of potential political instability in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of the 2020 elections. Finally, it discusses the limited access civil society organizations have to AU and regional economic community structures.

The report examines the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to drive long-term GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while noting that immediate gains will come from manufacturing and technology leapfrogging. It details the AU's suspension of Sudan following the military junta's crackdown on protestors and warns of risks including civil war and external influence from Gulf powers. The document highlights a democratic setback in Africa, where incumbents use constitutional amendments and electoral law changes to maintain power, citing Benin as a key example. It reviews AU peace support operations (PSOs) in Somalia and Darfur, arguing that military action must be paired with political solutions and questioning the neutrality of deploying neighbouring states. Finally, it discusses the AU-UN partnership, emphasizing the need for UN Security Council reform and sustainable financing for AU-led operations.

The report examines the complex relationship between the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), specifically the application of 'subsidiarity'—the principle that regional structures should lead in their own jurisdictions. It highlights systemic failures in North Africa due to the inactivity of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), tensions between the AU and SADC over elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the AU's successful re-assumption of leadership in the Central African Republic. The document also notes the East African Community's (EAC) internal trade disputes, ECOWAS's struggle to adapt to violent extremism in the Sahel, and the general lack of civil society engagement within the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The paper examines the evolution of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA) and the 2019 BAPA+40 conference, arguing that while South-South Cooperation (SSC) has traditionally focused on economic and social activities, it must now incorporate peace and security to address the realities of intra-state conflict in Africa. It highlights the alignment between peace and development as seen in the African Union's Agenda 2063, the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (specifically SDG 16), and UN resolutions on sustaining peace.

The briefing examines the role of the Islamic State (IS) as a driver of global conflict, noting that IS-related conflicts constituted approximately one third of all civil conflicts over the past five years. It argues that IS increases conflict complexity and polarization, making peace agreements less likely. Analysis of IS in Syria and Iraq reveals a strategy that prioritizes fighting over economic development and targets Sunni-dominated areas and petroleum-rich border regions. The authors conclude that these patterns make IS a persistent threat in other resource-rich countries with uncontrolled hinterlands, such as Libya, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.

Egypt's 2019 AU chairmanship focuses on economic goals, intra-African trade, and institutional reform, though the author notes a significant gap regarding governance and the need for Egypt to ratify the CFTA.

The report identifies 5.5 million km2 of 'REMAIN' land in sub-Saharan Africa potentially available for biofuel production after accounting for food security and conservation. Under current conditions, RSB-compliant production on prime and good quality land could yield 165 mt of aviation biofuel per annum, with miscanthus identified as the most promising feedstock. However, this potential is projected to decrease by approximately 40% by 2050 due to cropland expansion for food and climate change impacts. The study concludes that the region could meet between 30% and 90% of the projected 2050 global demand for alternative aviation fuels, depending on whether moderately suitable land is utilized.

The document outlines how human-induced climate change is warming and acidifying oceans, causing sea level rise, and melting high mountain frozen lands in Africa. These changes threaten fisheries, coastal infrastructure, and water security. It argues that while adaptation and disaster risk reduction are essential and cost-effective, urgent global greenhouse gas mitigation is the primary way to limit long-term damage.

The document argues that the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) complements the 1969 OAU Refugee Convention by providing modern mechanisms for burden-sharing and regional cooperation. It highlights the challenges facing the Convention, including a rise in forced returns (refoulement) and the pressure of hosting 7.4 million refugees and 17.8 million internally displaced persons in Africa. The brief suggests that the GCR's Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF) can reinvigorate African solidarity and promote durable solutions through a 'whole of society' approach involving the private sector and international financial institutions.

The report examines the 2019 outlook for the African Union's Peace and Security Council, highlighting the potential return of major powers like South Africa and Ethiopia to the council. It critiques the slow implementation of AU reforms, specifically regarding financial self-sufficiency and the reduction of the AU Commission. The document details a volatile 2019 electoral calendar across 11+ countries and warns of escalating instability in Gabon, Cameroon, and the Sahel. Additionally, it discusses the progress of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the tensions surrounding AU-EU negotiations.

The report highlights that while Africa has contributed minimally to global warming, it is disproportionately vulnerable due to high levels of extreme poverty and low state capacity. It projects that without significant intervention, the number of people in extreme poverty will rise until 2040, peaking at 590 million. The document argues that prioritizing human development—specifically education, healthcare, and water infrastructure—is essential to increasing adaptive capacity. It contrasts the 'Current Path' with a 'Green Road' scenario where inclusive, sustainable growth effectively eliminates extreme poverty by mid-century and significantly reduces the population lacking access to improved water.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The report evaluates Kenya's development prospects to 2040, highlighting a contrast between strong human capital (health and education) and a significant deficit in core infrastructure (water and sanitation). While Kenya is a regional leader in ICT and renewable energy, it faces challenges from a large youth bulge, corruption, and climate-driven food insecurity. The report presents three scenarios: 'Stuck in Traffic' (current path), 'Tuko Kazi' (positive interventions), and 'Bila Hopes' (stagnation and instability).