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The brief argues that Southern Africa can leverage geopolitical instability in the Middle East by establishing a 'Cape Corridor Assurance Framework'. This framework would integrate regional maritime coordination and national Vessel Traffic Services to provide risk bulletins and performance KPIs for insurers. Key recommendations include a 'Clean-Corridor Compliance Code' to deter shadow-fleet activity, protecting subsea cable infrastructure, and enhancing green-fuel bunkering at specific ports to ensure the route is visible, managed, and insurable.

Piracy has re-emerged off Somalia's coast in 2026, with the Joint Maritime Information Center raising its threat assessment to 'severe' following several hijackings in April and May. The document highlights that while international naval efforts like Operation Atalanta and Combined Task Force 151 have previously suppressed piracy, they are currently stretched thin due to crises in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The author argues that piracy is driven by the collapse of sea-dependent livelihoods caused by illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. While Türkiye has signed agreements to safeguard Somali territorial waters, the document suggests Turkish forces may prioritize their own deep-sea drilling assets. The report concludes that unless the Somali federal government and partners address community grievances and governance gaps, the region remains vulnerable to a sustained piracy cycle.

China's engagement in Iraq and Syria is primarily driven by economic logic and the Belt and Road Initiative, though it increasingly faces security risks from terrorism and political instability. In Iraq, China has become a top trading partner with a heavy focus on oil, while in Syria, it provides political cover for the Assad regime and explores limited reconstruction opportunities. The document argues that China lacks a unified regional strategy, instead employing a cautious, pragmatic, and piecemeal approach that balances economic opportunism with a traditional policy of non-interference, though the need to protect assets may eventually push Beijing toward more active counter-terrorism efforts.

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

The document examines how political instability, corruption, and a focus on onshore security led to 'sea blindness' in the Gulf of Guinea, creating a security gap exploited by pirates and transnational criminal networks. It details the region's vast natural resources, including oil, gas, and minerals, and analyzes the shift toward maritime security since 2012. The author evaluates various responses, from national naval upgrades in Nigeria and Ghana to regional frameworks like the Yaoundé Declaration and international support from the EU and UN, concluding that the primary challenge remains translating high-level policy into operational action.

The paper assesses the limitations of naval operations like EU Naval Force Operation ATALANTA and NATO's Operation Ocean Shield in addressing the root causes of Somali piracy. It identifies illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, political instability, and youth unemployment as primary drivers of piracy. While Somalia has established a legal framework through the Somalia Maritime Resource and Security Strategy (SMRSS), the declaration of its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), and the Federal Somali Fisheries Law, it lacks the technical capacity—such as Vessel Monitoring Systems and a Fisheries Monitoring Center—to enforce these laws. The author advocates for international navies to transition from purely military deterrents to supporting Somalia's coast guard and monitoring fishing activities to prevent a resurgence of piracy.

The author argues that Somalia remains far from functional statehood despite the end of its transition period, citing a corrupt and factionalized Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a paralyzed Parliament. While external actors and Amisom forces have made security gains against Al-Shabaab and piracy, internal political instability, lack of legitimacy, and territorial disputes involving Puntland and Somaliland threaten the process. The document concludes that without genuine political will and inclusive engagement of stakeholders, the transition is unlikely to succeed.

The paper examines Kenya's response to maritime piracy, noting that while the country's geostrategic location makes it a crucial actor, its engagement has lacked a coherent domestic strategy. It highlights the economic impact of piracy, the failure of previous prosecution agreements due to resource gaps, and the potential for improved strategic engagement through international conferences and regional cooperation.

The report argues that maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia imposes significant economic costs on Kenya, including shipping surcharges and losses in tourism, while also facilitating money laundering within the country. It assesses previous counter-piracy efforts, noting that while Kenya has attempted to prosecute pirates, these efforts were hampered by jurisdictional conflicts and archaic evidentiary laws. The author recommends a multi-pronged strategy that combines sea-based naval patrols with land-based efforts to rebuild the Somali state and disrupt the financial networks of pirate bosses operating within Kenya.

The Middle East contains approximately 6 percent of the world's coral reefs, with nearly two-thirds currently at risk from local threats, most notably overfishing. While some areas of the Red Sea remain under low threat, the Persian Gulf is highly stressed, with over 85 percent of its reefs considered threatened. Projections indicate that thermal stress and ocean acidification will push all reefs in the region to threatened status by 2050. Currently, only 12 percent of the region's reefs are within Marine Protected Areas, though Egypt has significant coverage with about 50 percent of its reefs protected.

The document examines the role of defence cooperation within the IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa) framework, specifically focusing on the IBSAMAR naval exercises. It notes that while South Africa is the weakest military power among the three, it can use these political platforms to promote its domestic arms industry, such as Denel, and engage in technical collaborations like the trilateral satellite programme to enhance maritime and border monitoring.

The briefing analyzes the rise of piracy in Somalia, specifically citing the seizure of the MV Faina, as evidence of systemic security failures. It attributes the crisis to the inability of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to provide security, the limited mandate of AMISOM, and the failure of regional bodies like IGAD. The author contends that piracy gained local legitimacy as a response to the illegal exploitation of Somali marine resources by foreign companies and argues that military solutions are insufficient without a paradigm shift toward human security and the establishment of an inclusive Somali government.