At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly

This research paper evaluates the state of Somalia's transition toward democracy as the August 20 deadline approaches, arguing that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to establish functional statehood due to corruption, factionalism, and a lack of political will.

• The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to make significant progress toward stability, suffering from a reputation for weak and corrupt leadership and internal factionalism that hinders movement on critical issues.
• Parliamentary operations have been stalled for several months following the removal and replacement of speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, contributing to a lack of legitimacy for both Parliament and the TFG.
• While Amisom forces have made gains against Al-Shabaab and international naval forces have reduced piracy in the Gulf of Aden, significant security threats persist. Kenya's attempt to take Kismayu to isolate Al-Shabaab may lead the group to adopt guerrilla tactics, threatening regional stability.
• Territorial dynamics complicate the transition: Puntland requires a legitimate government to return as a sub-state in a federal system, while Somaliland continues to seek recognition as an independent state following its unilateral declaration of independence in the early 1990s.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2012). At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly. https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly. 2012. https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly |date=10 August 2012 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2012end, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2012}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }