At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly

The author argues that Somalia remains far from functional statehood despite the end of its transition period, citing a corrupt and factionalized Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and a paralyzed Parliament. While external actors and Amisom forces have made security gains against Al-Shabaab and piracy, internal political instability, lack of legitimacy, and territorial disputes involving Puntland and Somaliland threaten the process. The document concludes that without genuine political will and inclusive engagement of stakeholders, the transition is unlikely to succeed.

• The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Parliament are characterized by corruption, weak leadership, and factional rivalry, which has stalled progress on the transition roadmap's benchmarks for security, constitution, reconciliation, and good governance.
• Parliamentary operations have been halted for several months following the removal and replacement of speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Adan, further undermining the legitimacy of the TFG.
• Security improvements have been driven primarily by external forces, including Amisom's gains against Al-Shabaab and international naval efforts to reduce piracy in the Gulf of Aden.
• Regional stability is threatened by the potential for Al-Shabaab to shift to guerrilla tactics if Kenya succeeds in taking Kismayu to cut off the group's base.
• Territorial dynamics complicate the transition, as Puntland requires a legitimate government to return to a federal sub-state role, and Somaliland continues to seek unrecognized independence.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2012). At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly. https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly. 2012. https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly |date=10 August 2012 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2012end, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2012}, month = aug, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/at-the-end-of-the-transition-period-somalia-is-going-nowhere-slowly/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }