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Transcending instability in Somalia
This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies argues that stabilisation in Somalia requires a shift from a predominantly military-led approach to one that integrates non-military strategies. The author identifies five critical factors for sustainable peace: inclusive political reconciliation among clans, context-appropriate policing, basic infrastructural development, investment in women and youth, and the coordination of external partners.
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Document type: Policy brief
Deadline or deadlock? AMISOM’s future in Somalia
This policy brief argues that the 2021 deadline for the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) to transfer primary security responsibilities to the Somali National Security Forces (SNSF) is unrealistic. The author contends that the transition is currently driven more by donor funding preferences than by actual security improvements on the ground. To ensure a successful transition, the brief recommends enhancing AMISOM's operational capabilities and resolving the political deadlock between the Federal Government of Somalia and its federal member states.
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Document type: Policy brief
Westgate represents Africa's Somali malaise
This research paper analyzes the security implications of the Westgate attacks in Nairobi, arguing that Kenya's military intervention in Somalia and the broader regional instability facilitate radicalism. It highlights the tension between East Africa's economic growth and its fragility, suggesting that long-term stability requires inclusive, home-grown political settlements rather than solely military solutions.
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Document type: Research paper
Long walk to restoration: Lessons from Somalia’s transition process
This situation report by the Institute for Security Studies analyses the conclusion of Somalia's third transitional arrangement in August 2012. It examines the milestones achieved, the challenges that threatened the process, the factors contributing to its success, and the lessons learned for future peace initiatives in Africa.
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Document type: Report
Peace and Security Council Report
The June 2013 Peace and Security Council (PSC) Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides detailed analysis of security crises in Somalia and Mali, evaluates the outcomes of the May 2013 AU Summit, and identifies early warning issues across Africa.
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Document type: Report
Somalia: surprising win for Hassan Sheikh Mohamud
Briefing on the election of Hassan Sheikh Mohamud as President of Somalia on 10 September 2012, detailing his background in civil society and the significant state-building and security challenges he faces.
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Document type: Briefing
At the end of the transition period, Somalia is going nowhere slowly
This research paper evaluates the state of Somalia's transition toward democracy as the August 20 deadline approaches, arguing that the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has failed to establish functional statehood due to corruption, factionalism, and a lack of political will.
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Document type: Research paper
Rapport sur le Conseil de paix et de sécurité
This August 2012 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analyses on political and security crises in Mali, Libya, Angola, and Somalia, while examining the evolving role of China in African peace and security efforts.
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Document type: Report
Somalia: Understanding Al-Shabaab
This situation report from the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the structure, ideology, and strategic evolution of Al-Shabaab in Somalia as of June 2009. It examines the group's emergence following the Ethiopian military intervention in 2006 and its current efforts to undermine the National Unity Government led by President Sheikh Sharif.
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Document type: Report
The Somali Conflict: Root Causes, Obstacles and Peace-Building Strategies
This research paper examines the root causes, obstacles, and potential peace-building strategies for the Somali conflict. The authors argue that the civil war, which began after the ousting of General Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991, is driven by competition for power and resources, state repression, and a colonial legacy, further exacerbated by politicized clan identities and the availability of weapons. The paper identifies Ethiopia's hostile foreign policy and the interests of local warlords as primary obstacles to peace and proposes a comprehensive strategy involving security, clan-based power-sharing, economic redevelopment, and Islam-informed peace education.
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Document type: Research paper
Enhanced Policing is Critical to Sustain Military Victories in Somalia
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies argues that transitioning Somalia from conflict to post-conflict stability requires shifting security responsibilities from military forces to an enhanced, professional police force to protect liberated areas from al-Shabaab's guerrilla tactics and build public trust.
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Document type: Briefing
Tensions over the Jubaland process in Somalia could embolden Al-Shabaab
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines how competing local and regional interests regarding the formation of the Jubaland state in Somalia may undermine the fight against Al-Shabaab. It details the tensions between the Somalia Federal Government (SFG) and regional actors, specifically Kenya and Ethiopia, over the legitimacy and representivity of the process in Kismayo and surrounding regions.
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Document type: Briefing
Somalia: Next Steps are Important for Sustaining Progress
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the transition of Somalia toward a post-transitional government following the 2012 presidential election. While noting progress in security and political milestones, the authors identify three critical risks: grievances stemming from the peace process, the conflict of interest among transition leaders acting as both referees and players, and the potential evolution of Al-Shabaab's tactics following the loss of Kismayo.
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Document type: Briefing
Rooting Out Somali Piracy Starts On-Shore
This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies argues that combating piracy off the coast of Somalia requires a simultaneous, coordinated effort on land and sea. It highlights the economic dilemma where piracy remains lucrative while alternative livelihoods are limited, and emphasizes that the establishment of a functional Somali state, secure infrastructure, and the development of coastal fisheries are essential for long-term stability.
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Document type: Briefing
psc46may_13f-37530d088f53bd62.pdf
This May 2013 report from the Institute for Security Studies provides an analysis of the African Union's Peace and Security Council (PSC) activities, focusing on the political situation in Zimbabwe, the strategic review of the AMISOM mission in Somalia, and the institutionalization of the Pan-African Network of Sages (PanWise).
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Document type: Report
psc78_eng-c36a5529d3be6fec.pdf
This March 2016 issue of the Peace and Security Council (PSC) Report, published by the Institute for Security Studies, analyzes the effectiveness of the African Union's (AU) Peace and Security Council. It examines the limited impact of the PSC's open sessions on migration and natural resources, the socio-economic recovery and security challenges in Somalia, and the policy failures regarding the proposed military intervention in Burundi. Additionally, it features an interview with mediator Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah on the AU's capacity to resolve conflicts.
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Document type: Report