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The brief argues that Southern Africa can leverage geopolitical instability in the Middle East by establishing a 'Cape Corridor Assurance Framework'. This framework would integrate regional maritime coordination and national Vessel Traffic Services to provide risk bulletins and performance KPIs for insurers. Key recommendations include a 'Clean-Corridor Compliance Code' to deter shadow-fleet activity, protecting subsea cable infrastructure, and enhancing green-fuel bunkering at specific ports to ensure the route is visible, managed, and insurable.

Piracy has re-emerged off Somalia's coast in 2026, with the Joint Maritime Information Center raising its threat assessment to 'severe' following several hijackings in April and May. The document highlights that while international naval efforts like Operation Atalanta and Combined Task Force 151 have previously suppressed piracy, they are currently stretched thin due to crises in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. The author argues that piracy is driven by the collapse of sea-dependent livelihoods caused by illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. While Türkiye has signed agreements to safeguard Somali territorial waters, the document suggests Turkish forces may prioritize their own deep-sea drilling assets. The report concludes that unless the Somali federal government and partners address community grievances and governance gaps, the region remains vulnerable to a sustained piracy cycle.

The report analyzes maritime security in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO), emphasizing that threats like climate change, illegal fishing, and piracy are interconnected. It highlights the risks of increasing militarisation by global powers and the environmental dangers of rerouting shipping around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea instability.

The report analyzes marine geoengineering, dividing it into marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) and marine solar radiation modification (SRM). It argues that these speculative technologies pose irreversible risks to ocean ecosystems and human rights, while facing significant monitoring and verification challenges. The authors contend that proposed deployment zones span every ocean basin, making the impacts inherently transboundary and potentially violating international law, including the CBD moratorium and UNCLOS.

The Houthi movement utilizes a diverse network of official and unofficial digital channels to project influence and solidarity with Palestinians, leveraging a 'grey area' in platform moderation and government designations to avoid total censorship. The group's messaging is amplified by Iranian state media, pro-Kremlin networks, and far-left commentators, while official English-language content is carefully curated to be more palatable to international audiences than its Arabic counterparts.

The conflict in Sudan, which escalated in April 2023 between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's army and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is driven by a struggle for power and control over resources. This instability threatens regional security, specifically regarding the Nile River dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and risks destabilising fragile neighbours like Chad and the Central African Republic. Internationally, the crisis intersects with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 tourism goals and Russia's strategic interests, including a proposed naval base in Port Sudan and gold extraction by the Wagner Group. The author argues that lasting peace requires a long-term approach involving power-sharing and the gradual integration of armed groups into the national army.

The document outlines the interconnected risks of climate change, food insecurity, and national security, specifically focusing on how these factors drive instability in the Horn of Africa. It argues that food insecurity acts as both a byproduct and a driver of conflict, creating opportunities for violent extremist organizations like al-Shabab to gain influence. Using Ethiopia as a case study, the briefing highlights the impact of drought, floods, and interstate disputes over resources, while noting that the U.S. national security strategy recognizes global food systems as being under threat from climate events and geopolitical conflicts.

The document is a formal safeguards report for the project 'Building resilience in the face of climate change within traditional rain fed agricultural and pastoral systems in Sudan'. It identifies the project as a Category B environmental and social safeguards (ESS) project and lists the specific Sudanese states where the programme is located. It confirms the disclosure of the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) in both English and Arabic as of May 2020.

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

The Republic of the Sudan has implemented a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) that emphasizes vertical integration by building the capacity of its 18 state-level governments to lead adaptation action. Efforts have focused on establishing state-level planning bodies, providing downscaled climate data and vulnerability assessments, and delivering technical training on climate modelling and financing. While state governments hold significant legislative and executive authority, the document notes that financial decentralization remains limited. In the Eastern States (Kassala, Red Sea, and Al Qadarif), adaptation plans specifically target agriculture, water, and coastal zones, while highlighting women's empowerment as a key enabling factor.

The Middle East contains approximately 6 percent of the world's coral reefs, with nearly two-thirds currently at risk from local threats, most notably overfishing. While some areas of the Red Sea remain under low threat, the Persian Gulf is highly stressed, with over 85 percent of its reefs considered threatened. Projections indicate that thermal stress and ocean acidification will push all reefs in the region to threatened status by 2050. Currently, only 12 percent of the region's reefs are within Marine Protected Areas, though Egypt has significant coverage with about 50 percent of its reefs protected.

The briefing analyzes the rise of piracy in Somalia, specifically citing the seizure of the MV Faina, as evidence of systemic security failures. It attributes the crisis to the inability of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to provide security, the limited mandate of AMISOM, and the failure of regional bodies like IGAD. The author contends that piracy gained local legitimacy as a response to the illegal exploitation of Somali marine resources by foreign companies and argues that military solutions are insufficient without a paradigm shift toward human security and the establishment of an inclusive Somali government.

The briefing assesses the East Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) signed in October 2006 between the government of Sudan and the Eastern Front. While the agreement ended ten years of hostilities, its implementation is hindered by a lack of clear modalities, the absence of international guarantors, and significant disputes over ethnic representation. In Gedaref State, tensions are high because the Eastern Front primarily represents the Hadendowa, Rashaida, and Beni Amir, who are marginal in Gedaref's population. Fieldwork in Gedaref reveals that while 71.7% of interviewed community leaders are satisfied that the ESPA ended the conflict, many view the power-sharing arrangements as unjust and non-inclusive of the state's diverse ethnic groups, including the Shukriya and migrants from Western Sudan. The document warns that these inequities could lead to tribal polarisation or a return to armed conflict if the government does not ensure more equitable wealth and power distribution.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the environmental risks associated with the Red Sea crisis, highlighting how military conflict and the rerouting of shipping traffic threaten marine ecosystems, increase carbon emissions, and jeopardize the food security of coastal populations in Africa.