No World Order in Sudan: The Geopolitical Chessboard Unravels

The conflict in Sudan, which escalated in April 2023 between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan's army and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo's Rapid Support Forces (RSF), is driven by a struggle for power and control over resources. This instability threatens regional security, specifically regarding the Nile River dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and risks destabilising fragile neighbours like Chad and the Central African Republic. Internationally, the crisis intersects with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 tourism goals and Russia's strategic interests, including a proposed naval base in Port Sudan and gold extraction by the Wagner Group. The author argues that lasting peace requires a long-term approach involving power-sharing and the gradual integration of armed groups into the national army.

• The April 2023 conflict in Sudan is a power struggle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), who both resisted a transition to civilian rule to protect their wealth and control over resources.
• Sudan's instability exacerbates the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), as Ethiopia's refusal to agree on water distribution rules threatens Egypt's freshwater access and power generation.
• The conflict risks spilling over into Chad and the Central African Republic (CAR), where the influx of refugees and RSF fighters could fuel existing insurgencies and create new smuggling corridors for illegal arms through Libya.
• Russia seeks to establish a naval base in Port Sudan to increase its presence in the Red Sea and Indian Ocean, while the Wagner Group has accessed billions of dollars in gold to potentially fund the war in Ukraine.
• Saudi Arabia's strategic interests in the region, specifically the 500-billion-dollar NEOM project and Vision 2030 tourism infrastructure, are jeopardised by conflict and extremism in the Red Sea area.

APA

Besliu, R. (2023). No World Order in Sudan: The Geopolitical Chessboard Unravels. Green European Journal. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-in-sudan-the-geopolitical-chessboard-unravels/

Chicago

Besliu, Raluca. No World Order in Sudan: The Geopolitical Chessboard Unravels. Green European Journal, 2023. https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-in-sudan-the-geopolitical-chessboard-unravels/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Besliu |first1=Raluca |title=No World Order in Sudan: The Geopolitical Chessboard Unravels |publisher=Green European Journal |date=9 August 2023 |url=https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-in-sudan-the-geopolitical-chessboard-unravels/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{besliu2023world, author = {Besliu, Raluca}, title = {{No World Order in Sudan: The Geopolitical Chessboard Unravels}}, institution = {Green European Journal}, year = {2023}, month = aug, url = {https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/no-world-order-in-sudan-the-geopolitical-chessboard-unravels/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }