Competition, cooperation and security in the Red Sea

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

• The Red Sea is a highly vulnerable maritime route due to its reliance on two major chokepoints: the Suez Canal in the north and the Bab al-Mandab in the south, the latter of which is only 29 km wide at its narrowest point.
• State-to-state competition in the region occurs across three layers: internal Horn of Africa dynamics, regional rivalries exported from the Arabian Gulf (specifically Saudi Arabia vs. Iran), and competition between global superpowers.
• The war in Yemen represents a significant security threat, with Houthi forces utilizing 'drone' boats, anti-ship missiles, and sea mines, which has previously led Saudi Aramco to temporarily suspend crude oil shipments in July 2018.
• While Somali piracy decreased after 2012, the threat remains due to a lack of prosecutions for key instigators and the persistence of poor governance and economic conditions on land.
• Violent extremist organizations (VEOs) affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are active in Yemen, Somalia, and Egypt, though they have not conducted a major operation threatening the Red Sea in recent years.
• There is a perceived management gap in the Red Sea because no single regional organization has a clear mandate to coordinate across the entire maritime space; existing bodies like IGAD and the AU are geographically limited or lack internal consensus.
• The Djibouti Code of Conduct (DCoC) is the most effective existing tool for Red Sea maritime presence, particularly after the 2017 Jeddah Amendment expanded its scope from piracy to all maritime crime.
• Lessons from other maritime arrangements (such as ReCAAP in East Asia and SUCBAS in the Baltic Sea) suggest that successful cooperation requires non-binding agreements to protect national sovereignty and a focus on information sharing.

APA

Mahmood, O. S. (2019). Competition, cooperation and security in the Red Sea. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-24-2.pdf

Chicago

Mahmood, Omar S. Competition, cooperation and security in the Red Sea. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-24-2.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahmood |first1=Omar S |title=Competition, cooperation and security in the Red Sea |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-24-2.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahmood2019competition, author = {Mahmood, Omar S}, title = {{Competition, cooperation and security in the Red Sea}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-24-2.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }