Feeding Resilience

The document outlines the interconnected risks of climate change, food insecurity, and national security, specifically focusing on how these factors drive instability in the Horn of Africa. It argues that food insecurity acts as both a byproduct and a driver of conflict, creating opportunities for violent extremist organizations like al-Shabab to gain influence. Using Ethiopia as a case study, the briefing highlights the impact of drought, floods, and interstate disputes over resources, while noting that the U.S. national security strategy recognizes global food systems as being under threat from climate events and geopolitical conflicts.

• There is a reciprocal relationship between conflict and hunger, where food insecurity serves as a recruitment tool for violent extremists and a driver of instability.
• Climate-driven instability in the Horn of Africa is being exploited by opportunistic actors, including al-Shabab, to increase their influence through the mobilization of populations frustrated by scarcity and government repression.
• The instability in the Horn of Africa directly impacts U.S. national and economic security, particularly regarding maritime security in the Red Sea, through which 10% of global commerce passes.
• Climate-vulnerable economies, specifically the Vulnerable Twenty group, lost approximately $525 billion (around 20% of their GDP) between 2000 and 2019 due to climate change.
• In Ethiopia, climate change is projected to cause a loss of more than 6% of annual agricultural output by 2050 if current rainfall decline rates continue, while the country also faces risks from livestock loss and disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
• Global food insecurity is exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which removed significant amounts of grain from the market.

APA

The Council on Strategic Risks (2023). Feeding Resilience. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Feeding-Resilience-Jun12-Package.pdf

Chicago

The Council on Strategic Risks. Feeding Resilience. 2023. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Feeding-Resilience-Jun12-Package.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=The Council on Strategic Risks |title=Feeding Resilience |date=12 June 2023 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Feeding-Resilience-Jun12-Package.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{thecouncilonstrategicrisks2023feeding, author = {{The Council on Strategic Risks}}, title = {{Feeding Resilience}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Feeding-Resilience-Jun12-Package.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }