Kenya to 2030 and beyond

The report evaluates Kenya's development prospects to 2040, highlighting a contrast between strong human capital (health and education) and a significant deficit in core infrastructure (water and sanitation). While Kenya is a regional leader in ICT and renewable energy, it faces challenges from a large youth bulge, corruption, and climate-driven food insecurity. The report presents three scenarios: 'Stuck in Traffic' (current path), 'Tuko Kazi' (positive interventions), and 'Bila Hopes' (stagnation and instability).

• Kenya possesses a significant infrastructure deficit that acts as the primary drag on its economic productivity, particularly in access to clean water and improved sanitation.
• Despite infrastructure gaps, Kenya outperforms other lower-middle-income African countries in human development indicators, including life expectancy and adult education years.
• Kenya's energy sector is characterized by a high reliance on renewables, with geothermal, wind, solar, and hydro providing over 80% of electricity production as of 2015.
• The agricultural sector, which supports 70% of the population through subsistence farming, is constrained by low yields and high vulnerability to climate-induced droughts.
• Kenya faces a 'youth bulge' with nearly half of its adult population aged 15 to 29, which could drive economic growth if employment is provided but may otherwise catalyze social instability.
• The country's transition to an upper-middle-income economy by 2030 is unlikely, as it would require a GNI per capita increase of over 400%.
• Corruption and poor governance capacity are significant barriers to development, with Kenya scoring below other lower-middle-income African countries on some corruption measures.
• Kenya has achieved exceptional success in ICT, particularly through mobile money services like M-Pesa, which has significantly impacted poverty reduction.
• The 'Tuko Kazi' scenario suggests that targeted investments in WASH infrastructure, agricultural efficiency, and governance could make the economy 14% larger by 2040 than the current path.
• The 'Bila Hopes' scenario warns that stalling human development and increasing corruption could result in an economy 14% smaller by 2040 and a 17% increase in infant mortality.
• Kenya's trade profile is characterized by a persistent trade deficit and a reliance on primary exports, though service exports are expected to grow.
• Climate change is projected to increase temperatures and cause larger rainfall fluctuations, exacerbating food insecurity and water scarcity.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (2018). Kenya to 2030 and beyond. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/kenya-report.pdf

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. Kenya to 2030 and beyond. 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/kenya-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=Kenya to 2030 and beyond |date=August 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/kenya-report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudies2018kenya, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{Kenya to 2030 and beyond}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/kenya-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }