Africa and climate change

The report highlights that while Africa has contributed minimally to global warming, it is disproportionately vulnerable due to high levels of extreme poverty and low state capacity. It projects that without significant intervention, the number of people in extreme poverty will rise until 2040, peaking at 590 million. The document argues that prioritizing human development—specifically education, healthcare, and water infrastructure—is essential to increasing adaptive capacity. It contrasts the 'Current Path' with a 'Green Road' scenario where inclusive, sustainable growth effectively eliminates extreme poverty by mid-century and significantly reduces the population lacking access to improved water.

• Global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is projected to be reached by 2050, and potentially as early as 2030.
• Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change as it is the hottest continent and houses over half of the world's extremely poor population.
• The Sahel and tropical Western Africa are identified as 'climate change hotspots,' with the Sahel projected to see temperature increases 50% higher than the global average.
• On the 'Current Path,' Africa's extremely poor population is projected to peak at 590 million by 2040 before declining to 390 million by 2063.
• Western Africa is expected to have the highest number of highly vulnerable people, with Nigeria alone accounting for two-thirds of the region's extremely poor population.
• Approximately 290 million people in Africa lack access to improved drinking water; this number is projected to grow for 5 to 10 years in all regions except Northern Africa.
• State capacity in sub-Saharan Africa is limited, with government revenues averaging around one-fifth of GDP, compared to 30% in Northern Africa and 35% in OECD countries.
• The 'Green Road' scenario suggests that prioritizing inclusive development and human capital could reduce the extreme poverty rate to 12% by 2030 and effectively eliminate it by mid-century.
• Overpopulation is identified as a key stressor for water availability in Africa, sometimes causing more harm than climate change itself.
• Africa's share of global CO2 emissions is small at 4%, but emissions are projected to grow with population and urbanization, with sub-Saharan Africa expected to release more CO2 per year than Latin America and the Caribbean by 2060.

APA

Welborn, L. (2018). Africa and climate change. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar14.pdf

Chicago

Welborn, Lily. Africa and climate change. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar14.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Welborn |first1=Lily |title=Africa and climate change |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=November 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar14.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{welborn2018africa, author = {Welborn, Lily}, title = {{Africa and climate change}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = nov, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar14.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }