Understanding the sustainable aviation biofuel potential in sub-Saharan Africa

This executive summary report, produced by WWF South Africa in collaboration with IIASA, assesses the current and future potential for sustainable aviation biofuel feedstock production in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a systems analysis approach and RSB sustainability criteria, the study identifies 'REMAIN' land—areas not required for food security or environmental conservation—and evaluates the technical potential of various feedstocks to meet a minimum 60% greenhouse gas (GHG) savings criterion. The report concludes that while significant technical potential exists, it is likely to decrease by 2050 due to population growth, food demand, and climate change.

• Sub-Saharan Africa possesses approximately 5.5 million km² of 'REMAIN' land—grassland and shrubland not required for food security, legal protection, or nature conservation—potentially available for biofuel feedstock production.
• Strict sustainability criteria, specifically the RSB requirement for a minimum 60% GHG emission saving compared to fossil fuels, significantly limit suitable land. Only 0.8 million km² (15% of REMAIN land) is very suitable or suitable for feedstocks meeting this criterion if land-use change occurs.
• Perennial crops are the most viable for meeting GHG savings criteria because they require less intensive soil cultivation and better protect soil carbon. Miscanthus is identified as the most promising feedstock, potentially contributing 50% to 75% of the total potential depending on land suitability.
• The current technical potential for RSB-compliant biofuel on prime and good quality land is approximately 7,000 PJ (165 mt of aviation biofuel). If moderately suitable land is included, this potential increases to about 15,000 PJ (330 mt).
• Future biofuel production potential is projected to decline significantly by 2050. For prime and good quality land, the potential is expected to decrease by about 40% to approximately 4,000 PJ due to cropland expansion for food, climate change impacts on yields, and a reduction in available REMAIN land.
• Crop residues from cereals, oil crops, and sugarcane could add an additional 7% to 9% to the biofuel potential from REMAIN land via lignocellulosic conversion, though actual availability is limited by the need to maintain soil fertility (2 t/ha) and provide animal feed.
• The cultivation of biofuel feedstock on REMAIN land has a substantial job creation potential, estimated between 10 and 20 million jobs in the farming sector, depending on the crop and level of mechanization.
• Sub-Saharan Africa could technically contribute between 30% and 90% of the projected 2050 global international aviation demand for alternative fuels (targeted at 285 mt per annum), depending on whether moderately suitable land is utilized.
• In South Africa, the current technical potential for RSB-compliant biofuel from energy crops on very suitable and suitable land is 1.7 mt, which is approximately 80% of current domestic demand. Including agricultural residues could increase this to 260% of current demand.

APA

Bole-Rentel, T., Fischer, G., Tramberend, S., & van Velthuizen, H. (2019). Understanding the sustainable aviation biofuel potential in sub-Saharan Africa. WWF South Africa. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/sustainable_biofuel_potential_ssaf_summaryreport_finalized_v7_2_digital_pages.pdf?26941/taking-off-understanding-the-sustainable-aviation-biofuel-potential-in-sub-saharan-africa

Chicago

Bole-Rentel, Tjaša, Günther Fischer, Sylvia Tramberend, and Harrij van Velthuizen. Understanding the sustainable aviation biofuel potential in sub-Saharan Africa. WWF South Africa, 2019. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/sustainable_biofuel_potential_ssaf_summaryreport_finalized_v7_2_digital_pages.pdf?26941/taking-off-understanding-the-sustainable-aviation-biofuel-potential-in-sub-saharan-africa.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{bolerentel2019understanding, author = {Bole-Rentel, Tjaša and Fischer, Günther and Tramberend, Sylvia and van Velthuizen, Harrij}, title = {{Understanding the sustainable aviation biofuel potential in sub-Saharan Africa}}, institution = {WWF South Africa}, year = {2019}, month = jan, url = {https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/sustainable_biofuel_potential_ssaf_summaryreport_finalized_v7_2_digital_pages.pdf?26941/taking-off-understanding-the-sustainable-aviation-biofuel-potential-in-sub-saharan-africa}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }