The IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate What’s in it for Africa?

This guide, produced by the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), Overseas Development Institute (ODI), and SouthSouthNorth (SSN), distils the 2019 IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate specifically for African decision-makers. It details how human-induced warming is altering ocean chemistry and temperature, accelerating sea level rise, and melting high mountain frozen lands, all of which threaten African ecosystems, food security, and coastal livelihoods.

• Human-induced climate change is altering the physical and chemical properties of the oceans. Global temperatures have already risen 1C above pre-industrial levels, and the oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system. Additionally, the oceans have taken up 20% to 30% of human-induced carbon dioxide emissions since the 1980s, leading to increased acidification.
• Ocean warming and acidification are damaging marine ecosystems and shifting species distributions. Coral reefs are being destroyed by marine heatwaves and acidification, and seagrass meadows and kelp forests are at very high risk even at 1.5C of warming. These changes affect the abundance and mix of species, which in turn alters predator-prey interactions.
• Climate change threatens fish stocks and food security, particularly in tropical oceans. The eastern central Atlantic Ocean and the western Indian Ocean are at high risk by the end of the 21st century under high warming scenarios. In West Africa's coastal areas, this could increase the risk of malnutrition and food insecurity for populations dependent on fish for nutrition.
• The Canary and Benguela Currents, which support productive ecosystems along the west coast of Africa, are at risk. Climate change is expected to threaten the ecosystem benefits these upwelling systems provide, such as fisheries and aquaculture, particularly in the latter half of the century. Vulnerability is higher in north west Africa due to population growth and social unrest.
• Sea levels are rising at an accelerated rate of 3.6 mm per year, which is twice the rate of the 20th century. This creates a 'coastal squeeze' where built environments and rising seas trap ecosystems like mangrove forests and coastal wetlands. By 2100, global sea levels could rise by 2959 cm under low emissions or 61110 cm under high emissions scenarios.
• Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, creating cascading impacts. Tropical cyclones are becoming wetter and more intense in tropical areas. In Africa, extreme El Nio and La Nia events affect rainfall patterns, and there is a risk that Atlantic climate systems will be disrupted, impacting regions like the Sahel.
• The cryosphere in East Africa, including Mount Kilimanjaro and Mount Kenya, is melting. This leads to changing river runoff, which can affect agriculture and hydropower. The retreat of glaciers also increases hazards such as landslides and the release of heavy metals like mercury into the water supply.
• Investing in early action and disaster risk reduction is more cost-effective than recovery. A global estimate suggests that every dollar invested in disaster risk reduction saves US$2-4 in recovery costs. Ecosystem-based solutions, such as wetlands and floodplains, can reduce storm damage by 5478% and 8495% respectively.
• Coastal protection strategies vary in effectiveness and cost. 'Hard' infrastructure (e.g., seawalls) provides predictable safety but can be unaffordable for poor areas and cause habitat destruction. Ecosystem-based adaptation (e.g., mangrove restoration) provides co-benefits like carbon sequestration and fishery productivity but is limited by ocean warming and acidification.
• Blue carbon ecosystems, such as mangroves, tidal marshes, and seagrass meadows, offer a way to integrate mitigation and adaptation. While their global contribution to halting warming is modest, they provide local benefits including storm protection and improved water quality. An example in Gazi Bay, Kenya, shows how carbon credit sales can fund community development.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (2019). The IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate What’s in it for Africa? https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/IPCC-Oceans-Africa_WEB_0.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. The IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate What’s in it for Africa? 2019. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/IPCC-Oceans-Africa_WEB_0.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=The IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate What’s in it for Africa? |date=2019 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/IPCC-Oceans-Africa_WEB_0.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetwork2019ipccs, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{The IPCC’s Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate What’s in it for Africa?}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2019}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/IPCC-Oceans-Africa_WEB_0.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }