The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS)

The briefing examines the role of the Islamic State (IS) as a driver of global conflict, noting that IS-related conflicts constituted approximately one third of all civil conflicts over the past five years. It argues that IS increases conflict complexity and polarization, making peace agreements less likely. Analysis of IS in Syria and Iraq reveals a strategy that prioritizes fighting over economic development and targets Sunni-dominated areas and petroleum-rich border regions. The authors conclude that these patterns make IS a persistent threat in other resource-rich countries with uncontrolled hinterlands, such as Libya, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.

• The Islamic State (IS) has significantly influenced global conflict trends, with IS-related conflicts accounting for roughly one third of all civil conflicts over the last five years. In 2018, 12 out of 52 conflicts involved IS, and these conflicts were responsible for approximately 20% of all battle-related deaths worldwide.
• IS involvement in existing civil conflicts typically increases polarization and complexity, which hinders the possibility of peace agreements. This is exemplified by the Mindanao conflict in the Philippines, where IS's goal of incorporating the area into a global Caliphate makes negotiations with the government less likely than they would be with local groups having specific territorial claims.
• Analysis of nightlight emissions in Syria and Iraq indicates that IS prioritizes military expenditure over the production of collective economic goods. This suggests that IS can sustain asymmetric warfare for extended periods even with limited military power, provided they have the resource capacity to continue fighting.
• IS territorial expansion between 2013 and 2015 was driven by the targeting of Sunni-dominated areas where recruitment was easier and resistance lower. The group also strategically focused on border areas to facilitate the entry of foreign militants and the smuggling of resources.
• The financial viability of the IS Caliphate was heavily dependent on the seizure of petroleum fields and the subsequent sale of oil, making the group one of the wealthiest terrorist organizations in history.
• Despite the loss of its primary stronghold in Syria and Iraq by August 2018, IS remains a threat in other countries with similar conditions, specifically those with petroleum resources, uncontrolled hinterlands, and excluded groups, such as Libya, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria.

APA

Gates, S., Tollefsen, A. F., & Rustad, S. A. (2019). The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS). Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0c92b46a-57a3-4128-ac41-8009912be3e4/Rustad Tollefsen Gates - The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State IS Conflict Trends 4-2019.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Gates, Scott, Andreas Forø Tollefsen, and Siri Aas Rustad. The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS). Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2019. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0c92b46a-57a3-4128-ac41-8009912be3e4/Rustad Tollefsen Gates - The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State IS Conflict Trends 4-2019.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gates |first1=Scott |last2=Tollefsen |first2=Andreas Forø |last3=Rustad |first3=Siri Aas |title=The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS) |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=April 2019 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0c92b46a-57a3-4128-ac41-8009912be3e4/Rustad Tollefsen Gates - The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State IS Conflict Trends 4-2019.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{gates2019fall, author = {Gates, Scott and Tollefsen, Andreas Forø and Rustad, Siri Aas}, title = {{The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State (IS)}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2019}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/0c92b46a-57a3-4128-ac41-8009912be3e4/Rustad Tollefsen Gates - The Fall and Rise of the Islamic State IS Conflict Trends 4-2019.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }