Peace & Security Council Report

The August 2019 Peace & Security Council Report examines the African Union's (AU) struggle to define 'unconstitutional changes of government' in the context of popular uprisings in Algeria and Sudan. It highlights the risks of increasing foreign military presence, particularly in the Horn of Africa, and the resulting rivalry between global powers like the US and China. The report also advocates for the inclusion of women in Sudan's peace process and warns of potential political instability in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of the 2020 elections. Finally, it discusses the limited access civil society organizations have to AU and regional economic community structures.

• The African Union (AU) lacks a clear legal and normative framework to determine if the removal of governments via popular uprisings constitutes an 'unconstitutional change of government'. The AU's responses vary: resignations in Algeria were treated as internal affairs, while military takeovers in Sudan and Burkina Faso led to suspensions or deadlines for power transfer.
• Foreign military presence in Africa has increased since 9/11, with the US and France maintaining the largest troop levels. The Horn of Africa is the primary center of this presence, hosting approximately 11 foreign military bases due to its strategic proximity to Asia and the Middle East.
• The proliferation of foreign military bases risks turning Africa into a proxy for global power rivalries, specifically between the US and China in Djibouti. This presence can also undermine the operationalization of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and the African Standby Force (ASF) by creating ad hoc regional response structures like the G5 Sahel.
• Women's exclusion from Sudan's peace negotiations is a missed opportunity for lasting stability. Research indicates that peace agreements with female signatories are 35% more likely to last at least 15 years and 64% less likely to fail, as women tend to prioritize political, economic, and social reforms over military-focused deals.
• Côte d’Ivoire faces potential political instability ahead of the 2020 presidential election due to disagreements over the reform of the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI) and inadequate integration of the military, which led to mutinies in 2017 and 2018.
• Civil society organizations (CSOs) report a shrinking space for engagement and limited access to the AU and regional economic communities (RECs). While the AU has the Economic Social and Cultural Council (ECOSOCC), its capacity is limited, and CSOs in the SADC region specifically lack recognized channels for regular engagement with the SADC Secretariat.

APA

Diatta, M., Louw-Vaudran, L., Attah-Asamoah, A., Woldemichael, S., Kumalo, L., & Roddy-Mullineaux, C. (2019). Peace & Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/psc-116.pdf

Chicago

Diatta, Mohamed, Liesl Louw-Vaudran, Andrews Attah-Asamoah, Shewit Woldemichael, Liezelle Kumalo, and Cassie Roddy-Mullineaux. Peace & Security Council Report. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/psc-116.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{diatta2019peace, author = {Diatta, Mohamed and Louw-Vaudran, Liesl and Attah-Asamoah, Andrews and Woldemichael, Shewit and Kumalo, Liezelle and Roddy-Mullineaux, Cassie}, title = {{Peace \& Security Council Report}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/psc-116.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }