Violence in Africa

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

• Armed conflict fatalities in Africa have generally declined over the long term, though they peaked in 2014-15. Violence involving militant Islamist groups and the state responses to them have proven to be the most resilient forms of conflict.
• Armed violence is concentrated in a small number of countries. When adjusted for population size, the citizens most at risk of fatalities between 2001 and 2017 were in the Central African Republic, Somalia, Liberia, Libya, Sudan, South Sudan, and Burundi.
• Africa bears a disproportionately high global burden of non-state conflict, which often reflects the inability of governments to maintain territorial control and law and order across large areas of state land.
• There is a growing trend of urban-based political violence. The number of non-violent protests and violent riots has increased twelvefold since 2001, though these events have become less deadly on average over time.
• Extreme poverty remains a significant driver of instability. Approximately 37% of Africans live in extreme poverty (below US$1.90 per day), and the absolute number of people in this category is forecast to increase to 513 million by 2023 due to population growth.
• The 'youth bulge'—a high proportion of the population aged 15 to 29—increases the risk of criminal violence and conflict, particularly in countries with high unemployment and limited educational opportunities.
• Regime type significantly impacts stability, with 'anocracies' (intermediate regimes with both autocratic and democratic elements) being six times more likely than consolidated democracies to experience new civil conflict.
• Conflict recurrence is a major trend, with 60% of conflicts repeating in the same countries. The report notes that the risk of recurrence drops by as much as 75% in countries where UN peacekeepers are deployed.
• Poor governance is a critical vulnerability. The countries scoring worst on the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (below 40/100) include Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, CAR, Sudan, Libya, DRC, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, and Burundi.
• Ten countries are identified as being at the highest risk of armed conflict in 2023 based on the intersection of multiple structural drivers: Somalia, DRC, CAR, South Sudan, Sudan, Burundi, Libya, Cameroon, Angola, and Chad.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2018). Violence in Africa. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-12-v1.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Violence in Africa. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-12-v1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Violence in Africa |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=August 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-12-v1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2018violence, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Violence in Africa}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = aug, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ar-12-v1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }