MAKING PEACE WITH CLIMATE ADAPTATION

The document examines the intersection of climate change, security, and adaptation, arguing that climate impacts act as 'threat multipliers' that can destabilize states and international relations. It highlights risks such as transboundary water conflicts, food insecurity, Arctic geopolitical shifts, and mass migration. The authors warn against 'maladaptation'—adaptation efforts that inadvertently increase inequality or tension—and advocate for a 'preventive' approach. Key recommendations include creating multidimensional early warning systems, implementing risk-tolerant and 'nexus' financing for insecure regions, and ensuring adaptation strategies are timely, strategically targeted, and informed by political economy analysis to avoid exacerbating existing social and political frictions.

• Climate change acts as a systemic security risk and a "threat multiplier" that can increase tensions within and between states, potentially leading to violence if unmanaged.
• Interstate security risks are emerging in four primary areas: transboundary water basins where dam construction and scarcity increase tensions; international food trade chokepoints vulnerable to climate hazards; the melting Arctic, which opens new shipping routes and resource competition; and unmanaged climate-related migration.
• Intrastate instability can be triggered by slow-onset events like prolonged drought, which erode resilience and serve as a tipping point for social unrest, or acute shocks like food price spikes and natural disasters that cause societal chaos in fragile contexts.
• Poorly planned adaptation can lead to 'maladaptation,' where infrastructure or policies exacerbate inequality, exclude local voices, or harm specific interests, thereby increasing security risks.
• The transition to a low-carbon economy poses its own security risks, including economic destabilization for countries highly dependent on fossil fuel rents, such as Libya and Iraq, and the potential loss of millions of jobs in fossil-dependent industries.
• There is a significant gap between the financial resources allocated to military spending and fossil fuel subsidies compared to climate action; in 2017, $1.7 trillion was spent on global military spending while only $410 billion was spent on climate action.
• Effective adaptation in fragile contexts must be 'timely, political economy-informed, and strategically targeted' to avoid creating new conflicts and to ensure that transitions do not lead to turmoil.
• The authors recommend the creation of multidimensional early warning systems that map environmental changes against social, political, and security factors, and the development of 'nexus financing' that achieves both development and security outcomes.

APA

van Schaik, L., Born, C., Sellwood, E., & de Bruin, S. (2019). MAKING PEACE WITH CLIMATE ADAPTATION. World Resources Institute. https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/Making_Peace_with_Adaptation_Paper_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf

Chicago

van Schaik, Louise, Camilla Born, Elizabeth Sellwood, and Sophie de Bruin. MAKING PEACE WITH CLIMATE ADAPTATION. World Resources Institute, 2019. https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/Making_Peace_with_Adaptation_Paper_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=van Schaik |first1=Louise |last2=Born |first2=Camilla |last3=Sellwood |first3=Elizabeth |last4=de Bruin |first4=Sophie |title=MAKING PEACE WITH CLIMATE ADAPTATION |publisher=World Resources Institute |date=2 August 2019 |url=https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/Making_Peace_with_Adaptation_Paper_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanschaik2019making, author = {van Schaik, Louise and Born, Camilla and Sellwood, Elizabeth and de Bruin, Sophie}, title = {{MAKING PEACE WITH CLIMATE ADAPTATION}}, institution = {World Resources Institute}, year = {2019}, month = aug, url = {https://files.wri.org/s3fs-public/uploads/Making_Peace_with_Adaptation_Paper_-_Global_Commission_on_Adaptation.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }