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The document concludes that while ECOWAS has made progress, its current path is insufficient to address structural challenges such as insecurity, corruption, and economic dependence on commodities. It argues that without aggressive interventions in governance, security, and economic diversification, the region will fail to meet its 2050 sustainability targets. Key recommendations include operationalising the ECOWAS Standby Force Unit, transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar and wind, and implementing the West African Power Pool white paper to create a regional electricity market.

The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.

The report concludes that Algeria's potential remains unfulfilled due to a dependency on hydrocarbons, poor agricultural yields, and weak governance. It advocates for a multi-sectoral approach to diversification, including investments in climate-smart agriculture, renewable energy, and the liberalisation of the economy to reduce the state's dominance in business and banking.

The report compares a 'Current Path' forecast for Angola with a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements. The Combined scenario projects a dramatic increase in GDP per capita to US$16,023 by 2043 and a significant reduction in extreme poverty, though it also forecasts a substantial increase in carbon emissions due to industrial and demographic growth.

The report projects that Cape Verde will experience significant urbanisation and GDP per capita growth by 2043, though it remains highly dependent on food imports and tourism. While various sectoral interventions—particularly free trade and manufacturing—could further boost GDP and reduce poverty, they are also projected to increase carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP increase to US$8.7 billion and a reduction of extreme poverty to 3.6% of the population by 2043.

The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly increase North Africa's GDP per capita and total GDP by 2043, with the most substantial gains driven by free trade under AfCFTA, manufacturing, and leapfrogging. While the scenario predicts a sharp decline in extreme poverty—particularly in Mauritania and Egypt—it also forecasts a 17% increase in carbon emissions compared to the Current Path, primarily driven by Egypt and Algeria.

The report concludes that ECCAS faces deep-rooted structural challenges in agriculture, manufacturing, and electrification that hinder its development. It argues that without aggressive interventions in sectors like renewable energy, infrastructure, and economic diversification, the region will fail to meet its 2043 inclusive development targets.

The document models the potential for Burundi to achieve significant growth and poverty reduction through a combined policy push across sectors like governance, health, and agriculture. While the 'Combined scenario' predicts a dramatic increase in GDP and a sharp decline in extreme poverty by 2043, it also forecasts a higher increase in carbon emissions compared to the current path.

The report details specific multipliers and targets for Burundi across several development scenarios. Key interventions include improving government effectiveness, reducing child and maternal mortality, increasing vocational training, boosting agricultural yields, and expanding renewable energy and ICT infrastructure. The document compares these projected outcomes against averages for low-income African countries and historical benchmarks from other African nations.

The document models the potential impact of different development paths on Algeria's GDP, poverty levels, and energy landscape by 2043. It finds that a 'Combined scenario'—integrating improvements in governance, education, health, and infrastructure—would significantly increase GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty and inequality. However, this economic growth is projected to increase carbon emissions. The analysis also highlights Algeria's heavy reliance on gas and oil, while noting its potential for renewable energy development.

The report concludes that Africa's current development trajectory is insufficient to meet Agenda 2063 and SDG goals, with 19.1% of the population projected to remain in extreme poverty by 2043. It argues that a 'Combined scenario' of coordinated reforms—including the full implementation of the AfCFTA, improved governance, and an accelerated energy transition—could lift GDP to nearly US$9 trillion and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9% by 2043. Key recommendations include doubling or tripling annual energy buildout through renewables and regional power pools, and prioritizing industrialization in agro-processing and mineral beneficiation.

The report analyzes Burundi's development prospects, highlighting a 'Current Path' characterized by slow growth, high poverty, and governance challenges. It models eight sectoral scenarios—Governance, Demographics and Health, Education, Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging, Agriculture, Manufacturing, AfCFTA, and Financial Flows—to demonstrate how targeted interventions could improve GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty. A 'Combined scenario' suggests that an integrated policy push could dramatically increase GDP to US$17.2 billion by 2043 and reduce the extreme poverty rate by 49 percentage points compared to the Current Path, though this would result in higher carbon emissions.

The paper examines the UK's Enhanced Trade Partnerships (ETPs), which are non-binding memoranda of understanding that sit between informal commercial meetings (JETCOs) and binding Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). While ETPs frequently reference sustainability and can facilitate 'green' trade and regulatory diplomacy, the author argues they primarily serve offensive trade interests and lack the civil society oversight necessary to prevent 'greenwashing'.

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario presents an optimistic pathway for Africa, benchmarking progress against historical trajectories in South Asia and South America. It focuses on accelerating the transition to modern energy systems and expanding digital connectivity to drive productivity and social benefits by 2050.

The report outlines the 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario, which models the effects of targeted infrastructure investment in Africa from 2027 to 2050. It emphasizes the synergy between large-scale renewable energy, off-grid solutions, and ICT to lower barriers for private capital and formalize the informal economy. The analysis uses the International Futures (IFs) platform to categorize spending across traditional, ICT, and other infrastructure, benchmarking progress against developing regions in South Asia and South America.

As of 2022, 41.5% of Africa's population lacked electricity, with sub-Saharan Africa lagging significantly at 51.5% access. The document argues that traditional grid expansion is too slow and expensive for rural areas, proposing a 'leapfrog' strategy centered on solar-based off-grid and mini-grid solutions. World Bank estimates suggest that providing electricity to 380 million people by 2030 would require over 160,000 mini-grids costing approximately US$ 91 billion. Despite possessing 60% of the world's best solar resources, Africa faces severe financing shortfalls, with clean energy finance growing by only 2.5% in sub-Saharan Africa between 2021 and 2022, compared to over 100% in Latin America. Barriers to deployment include high public debt, regulatory bottlenecks, and shifting geopolitical priorities, such as the end of the US Power Africa initiative.

Africa's infrastructure spending is robust relative to GDP but insufficient given population growth, with financing heavily reliant on governments and development partners. Public investment is severely constrained by high sovereign debt, with debt servicing costs often exceeding infrastructure spending. Private investment remains low due to high capital costs and risk perceptions, though specific countries like South Africa and Egypt have seen success through targeted policy frameworks. Development finance is also facing a decline due to geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures.

The document defines development leapfrogging as the ability of developing economies to skip intermediate technological stages and move directly to advanced systems. It argues that Africa is uniquely positioned for this due to limited legacy infrastructure, which reduces 'path dependency' and allows for the adoption of decentralised and digital solutions. Key examples include mobile finance, solar mini-grids, and the use of AI in agriculture and health. However, the document notes that full realisation of this potential depends on enabling conditions such as regulatory frameworks, digital infrastructure, and skilled human capital.

Africa has seen infrastructure improvements, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, but continues to face a substantial deficit driven by population growth and urbanisation. Financing is characterized by a tension between concessional Western multilateral loans and more commercial, opaque Chinese lending via the Belt and Road Initiative. Recent efforts, such as the PIDA framework and the 2025 Africa Infrastructure Financing Summit, aim to align investment with pan-African priorities and global sustainability goals, including a transition toward renewables and electric mobility.

The Asia-Pacific region is experiencing rapid renewable energy growth and rising electricity demand, which increases grid variability. Simultaneously, escalating climate extremes—such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods—create operational disruptions. The report argues that traditional reactive repairs and infrastructure hardening are insufficient, advocating for 'systemic adaptation' that accounts for cross-sector interdependencies. AI is presented as a critical tool to scale this adaptation by fusing fragmented datasets, orchestrating siloed analytical models, and augmenting decision-making under complexity.