The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario

The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario presents an optimistic pathway for Africa, benchmarking progress against historical trajectories in South Asia and South America. It focuses on accelerating the transition to modern energy systems and expanding digital connectivity to drive productivity and social benefits by 2050.

• The scenario models a faster transition to a modern energy system by increasing reliance on solar and wind power, improving energy storage, and deploying decentralised power systems such as micro-, mini-, and off-grid solutions, which results in reduced transmission losses.
• By 2050, the scenario projects that 89.5% of Africans will have electricity access, reducing the number of people without electricity from 543 million to 273 million. This represents a significant improvement over the 'Current Path' projection of 79% access.
• Renewable energy's share of total energy production is projected to reach 45% by 2050 under this scenario, compared to 34% under the Current Path.
• The scenario predicts a significant increase in fixed broadband subscriptions to 47 per 100 people by 2050, compared to 29 per 100 in the Current Path, which is identified as a key factor for higher AI adoption.
• Improvements in ICT infrastructure are expected to increase ICT value added by US$233 billion compared to the Current Path, adding approximately 1.75 percentage points to GDP, though the sector would still only account for roughly 8% of the continent's GDP.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026large, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }