The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario

The research paper describes the 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa, an optimistic development pathway benchmarked against South Asia and South America. The scenario models the impact of strategic investments in renewable energy and digital infrastructure to accelerate human development and economic productivity by 2050.

• The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging scenario envisions a faster transition to modern energy systems through increased renewable energy production, reduced transmission losses, and the use of decentralized solutions like micro-, mini-, and off-grid systems. By 2050, the share of renewable energy in total production is projected to reach 45%, compared to 34% in the 'Current Path' scenario.
• Electricity access is projected to improve significantly by 2050, with 89.5% of Africans gaining access, compared to 79% under the Current Path. This represents a reduction in the number of people without electricity from 543 million to 273 million. The gains are most pronounced in low-income countries, which are projected to be 15 percentage points above the Current Path, followed by lower-middle-income countries (7 percentage points) and upper-middle-income countries (2 percentage points).
• The scenario predicts a substantial increase in internet connectivity, specifically in fixed broadband subscriptions, which are expected to reach 47 per 100 people by 2050, compared to 29 per 100 in the Current Path. Mobile broadband penetration is expected to reach 151 subscriptions per 100 people, though this is only slightly higher than the 149 per 100 projected under the Current Path, suggesting the market is nearing saturation.
• Improvements in ICT infrastructure are expected to drive economic growth, with Africa's ICT infrastructure index rising to 0.66 by 2050 (up from 0.56 in the Current Path). This results in an ICT value added that is US$233 billion higher than the Current Path, adding approximately 1.75 percentage points to GDP, though the sector would still only account for roughly 8% of the continent's total GDP.

APA

Yeboua, K. (2026). The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi. The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |title=The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=25 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026large, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi}, title = {{The Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=09-leapfrog&topic=08-large-infrastructure-leapfrogging-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }