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The document highlights a shift in African gas extraction toward countries that have not historically exploited fossil fuels, noting that 84 percent of new pre-production reserves are located in recent entrants. It argues that these developments, largely destined for export, will increase gas production by a third by 2030 but will fail to address local electrification needs while exacerbating climate change and environmental risks.

The European Green Deal (EGD) offers the African private sector significant opportunities in green hydrogen production and the supply of critical raw materials, driven by the EU's need for energy security and supply chain diversification. While various funding instruments like InvestEU and the Global Gateway Africa-Europe Investment Package exist, the report warns of a potential 'unequal partnership' where Africa remains a mere resource supplier. It emphasizes the need for African stakeholders to proactively engage in technology transfer and co-creation to avoid lock-in effects and ensure inclusive growth.

The document explores how the European Green Deal (EGD) creates opportunities for the African private sector, particularly in green hydrogen and critical minerals, while warning against a return to a resource-supplier relationship. It details various EU funding mechanisms, technology transfer possibilities, and capacity-building programs, providing recommendations for African governments and companies to proactively engage with the EU to ensure an equal partnership.

The MENA region increased its operational renewable energy capacity by 57% since May 2022, adding 6.9 GW of solar and wind power. While there is a massive pipeline of 361 GW in planned projects, 60% of this capacity is earmarked for green hydrogen production and export rather than domestic decarbonization. The region remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with oil and gas providing over 90% of electricity, and 18 of 23 analyzed countries planning to expand their gas and oil power fleets. To fully decarbonize the electricity sector by 2050, the region would need to add 19 GW of solar and wind capacity annually.

The report analyzes how non-Western powers are extending their influence in Afghanistan and the Sahel through economic, political, and security tools. While China and Russia are the most visible actors, their strategies differ: Russia often employs a 'harder' security-focused approach, while China focuses on 'softer' developmental and economic interests. The document finds that while there are expectations that these powers will fill the vacuum left by Western withdrawals, there is limited evidence that a major power shift has materialized. It concludes that the engagement of autocratic states likely allows for the continuation of existing illiberal tendencies rather than actively exporting them, and recommends that Norway focus on its own unique benefits when engaging with these regions.

The report highlights a significant imbalance in African gas infrastructure, where investments are heavily skewed toward LNG export terminals rather than domestic electricity generation. With an estimated $245 billion in total gas infrastructure investments underway or planned, the document warns of 'stranded assets' as the world transitions to clean energy and European demand fluctuates. It details the current and projected capacities of LNG terminals, pipelines, and gas-fired power plants, noting that while countries like Nigeria, Mozambique, and Tanzania pursue massive export projects, they continue to face severe domestic electricity shortages.

The document analyzes the current and planned gas infrastructure in Africa, highlighting a significant imbalance where the majority of investment is directed toward LNG exports to Europe rather than domestic electrification. It details the costs and capacities of LNG terminals, pipelines, and gas-fired power plants, noting that while billions are proposed for development, much of this remains in the proposal stage and faces financial risks due to the transient nature of European energy demand.

The report highlights a planned US $245 billion expansion of gas infrastructure in Africa, primarily driven by European demand following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It argues that this focus on exports, particularly LNG and pipelines, undermines domestic energy needs and the transition to renewable energy. Significant funding gaps exist for proposed projects, and the report warns that these investments may become stranded assets as the global energy transition progresses.

Algeria's trade is heavily dominated by hydrocarbons, which accounted for 94% of exports in 2017. The country faces significant obstacles to industrialisation and diversification due to the influence of politically connected importers and a lack of regional economic integration within the Maghreb. While the European Union remains its primary trading partner, substantial informal trade exists with Tunisia and Mali, driven by tax and subsidy differentials.

The report finds a massive gap between Africa's annual climate finance needs (USD 277 billion) and actual flows (USD 29.5 billion). While international public finance dominates, private sector contribution is low at 14%. Finance is heavily concentrated in a few countries and sectors, with energy receiving the most investment, while agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) remains underfunded. The report recommends scaling up concessional finance, improving data tracking, and catalyzing private investment to meet 2030 goals.

The report examines the 'Black Friday' tragedy at the Melilla border, where at least 23 migrants died during an attempted crossing from Morocco to Spain. It contrasts official government claims that the event was caused by criminal trafficking networks with testimonies from survivors and human rights organisations, who describe illegal push-backs and coordinated violence by Spanish and Moroccan security forces. The text further analyzes the geopolitical relationship between Spain and Morocco, highlighting how financial aid and diplomatic agreements regarding Western Sahara are used to secure Morocco's role as a 'border guardian' for Europe, which the author contends leads to systemic human rights violations.

The Russia-Ukraine war has worsened systemic weaknesses in the international food system, disproportionately affecting African countries due to their high reliance on food, fuel, and fertiliser imports from Russia and Ukraine. This vulnerability is compounded by climate-induced weather events, internal conflicts, and structural infrastructure deficits. The report highlights that food price shocks have already triggered protests in countries like Uganda, Malawi, Senegal, and Sudan. To mitigate these risks, the authors recommend that private companies support the diversification of food sources and local agribusiness capacity, while African governments should reduce regulation and leverage regional integration platforms like the AfCFTA.

The document examines the tension between Africa's significant natural gas resources and the global shift toward net-zero emissions. It argues that while gas provides short-term revenue and energy security, long-term investments face high risks of becoming stranded assets due to declining global demand and the falling costs of renewable energy. The paper advocates for leveraging climate finance to scale up renewables and green hydrogen, which it presents as more sustainable pathways for economic diversification and energy access.

The annex outlines the technical specifications for forecasting Tunisia's development to 2040. It details data replacements from sources like UNICEF and the National Statistics Bureau, and specifies interventions across four scenarios: a common baseline, 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'. These interventions target economic freedom, corruption, education quality, ICT infrastructure, renewable energy, and carbon taxation.

The MENA region is well-positioned to produce zero-carbon fuels due to its abundant solar, wind, and hydrocarbon resources, as well as existing industrial infrastructure. While 'green' hydrogen (from renewables) and 'blue' hydrogen (from natural gas with carbon capture and storage) are both viable, the report argues that hydrocarbon-derived fuels could provide a lower-cost catalytic role in scaling the market. However, significant barriers exist, including a lack of meaningful demand beyond industrial users, the absence of carbon pricing or regulatory requirements to reduce emissions, and a lack of common certification schemes for lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. The report recommends regional coordination, the development of fuel-neutral procurement policies, and the establishment of comprehensive regulatory frameworks for carbon management to attract investment and ensure environmental integrity.

The report contends that natural gas expansion in Africa contradicts the Paris Agreement and poses significant economic and environmental risks. It argues that renewable energy is more cost-effective and creates more sustainable employment than the fossil fuel industry. Through case studies of Egypt, Nigeria, and Senegal, the document demonstrates that shifting from gas-based power to high-renewable scenarios would increase job creation and, in the case of Egypt, significantly reduce premature deaths from air pollution. It concludes that developed nations must stop financing fossil fuels and increase climate finance to support Africa's transition to zero-emissions energy systems.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced European states to prioritize energy security over climate goals, leading to a 'dash for LNG' that outbids developing nations and encourages a global return to coal. This shift undermines EU climate leadership and risks 'locking in' long-term fossil fuel infrastructure in Africa and Asia.

The document argues that Africa is well-positioned to become a major global hub for green hydrogen due to its abundant renewable energy potential, strategic location, and existing infrastructure. It examines global strategies from the EU, Australia, and Chile, and highlights specific projects in South Africa, Namibia, Mauritania, and Morocco. The authors recommend that the G20 provide targeted financing for infrastructure, facilitate technology transfers for local value addition, and help establish stable offtake agreements and harmonised regulatory standards to prevent deepening energy insecurity in Africa.

West Africa has experienced warming of 1–3°C since the mid-1970s, leading to increased heatwaves, variable rainfall, and widespread losses in GDP and food productivity. Future projections indicate severe risks, including a potential 30% decline in marine fisheries catch and significant population exposure to sea level rise, particularly in coastal cities like Lagos and Abidjan. Adaptation requires transformative, ecosystem-based approaches and a significant increase in climate finance, as current funding is insufficient and heavily skewed toward non-African institutions.

The policy brief examines the severe fiscal constraints facing African countries during COVID-19 recovery, noting that while advanced economies mobilised about 6% of GDP, African countries mobilised barely 1%. It highlights the inadequacy of current debt relief mechanisms like the DSSI and the Common Framework, and the high cost of borrowing from international capital markets due to unfair credit ratings. The author proposes five policy priorities: establishing national donor coordination frameworks, reallocating public investment to de-risk private projects, extending the DSSI for two years with partial debt cancellation, creating a transparent multilateral framework for debt resolution involving commercial creditors, and exploring the establishment of independent, publicly owned credit rating agencies.