Search Climate Insights Directory

The report argues that the period from 2026 to 2028 is a critical window to shape global digital governance before norms become entrenched. It focuses on the operationalisation of the Global Digital Compact (GDC) and the WSIS+20 outcome document, urging a shift toward 'digital justice' to address structural inequalities, 'compute deserts' in Africa and the Pacific, and the environmental costs of AI. The author outlines specific advocacy pathways within the UN General Assembly, OHCHR, ITU, and UNESCO, while highlighting the unique role of faith-based organisations as trusted intermediaries in restricted civic spaces. It also assesses regional dynamics across Africa, Europe, Latin America, Asia Pacific, the Caribbean, and the MENA region, noting the tension between security-driven policies and human rights.

The report analyzes six public climate finance interventions—ranging from local adaptation grants in Africa and Asia to a debt-for-nature swap in Ecuador—to test a framework for 'transformational' finance. It argues that high-quality climate finance is not defined by the financial instrument alone but by its ability to build an 'enabling environment' and deliver results across project, market, and system levels. Key findings highlight a persistent tension between the scale of finance and the quality of subnational accessibility, as well as significant data gaps in measuring system-level impacts and the depth of integration of equity and justice dimensions.

The research design for 'State Futures in the Global South' integrates the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze governance outcomes. The methodology involves benchmarking governance performance across six dimensions and incorporating regional perspectives from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia to validate scenario assumptions and identify emerging risks.

The document establishes a conceptual framework for analyzing the future of state governance in the Global South. It defines state governance as the structures and processes used to exercise authority and manage resources, emphasizing a shift away from Global North-centric democratic models toward 'accountable governance'. The research employs a foresight-driven approach to investigate how technology, economic transitions, and geopolitical shifts influence governance trajectories across seven defined regions of the Global South.

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

The report assesses Algeria's development trajectory to 2040, identifying governance and the resulting economic policy framework as the primary drivers of the country's challenges. It utilizes the International Futures modelling platform to contrast a 'Current Path' forecast with a prospective 'Algerian Dream' scenario characterized by a democratic government and equitable prosperity. For comparative analysis, the report benchmarks Algeria against other lower middle-income economies in Africa and global upper middle-income groups.

The report evaluates the climate transition progress of global private financial institutions (FIs) using the Net Zero Finance Tracker (NZFT). While target adoption has expanded, the quality of these targets remains weak, particularly regarding fossil fuel phase-outs. Implementation has improved in areas like climate risk disclosure, but real-world impact is limited: financed emissions have decreased only slightly since 2019, and credit financing remains heavily skewed toward fossil fuels. Direct finance for clean and transition energy projects grew by 18% annually from 2019 to 2024, reaching nearly USD 126 billion, though this investment is concentrated in advanced economies.

In 2023, climate finance to EMDEs surpassed USD 1 trillion, with 80% sourced domestically and China accounting for 64% of total flows. While mitigation finance grew to USD 979 billion, it remains far below the estimated USD 3.86 trillion annual need. Adaptation finance totaled USD 48 billion, showing significant unevenness as the top 20% of countries received over 70% of these funds. International public finance exceeded USD 159 billion, but faces potential declines due to ODA cuts, while international private finance rose to USD 49 billion. The report emphasizes that EMDEs require nearly USD 4 trillion annually through 2030 to achieve climate goals.

Climate finance for emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) surpassed USD 1 trillion in 2023, with 80% mobilized domestically. Mitigation finance dominates, accounting for 92% of flows (USD 979 billion), while adaptation finance reached USD 48 billion. China is the primary driver, providing 64% of total EMDE flows. Significant gaps remain, with annual mitigation needs estimated at USD 3.86 trillion. The report recommends strengthening domestic enabling environments, improving the quality of international finance, and increasing data transparency to scale investment.

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

The document examines the 'twin transition' of digital and green transformations, highlighting how digital technologies can both enable climate action and contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. It identifies critical gaps in infrastructure and financing for developing countries and proposes five priority decarbonization levers: green infrastructure, energy-efficient operations, sustainable supply chains, circular economy models, and climate-compatible infrastructure. The authors argue for coordinated international cooperation, targeted financial incentives, and the integration of environmental provisions into digital trade agreements to ensure an inclusive transition to net zero.

The report examines how coastal desalination plants can integrate carbon removal technologies, such as Direct Ocean Capture (DOC), Electrochemical Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (eOAE), and Direct Air Capture (DAC), by leveraging existing seawater pumping infrastructure and brine outflows. It identifies significant synergies, including reduced energy costs when using concentrated brines and potential energy savings of up to 30% through shared infrastructure. While theoretical carbon removal capacities are high—with eOAE potentially reaching 200 MtCO2/y under ideal conditions—the report highlights critical constraints such as high low-carbon energy requirements (up to 2.8 MWh/tCO2), the need for large-scale acid or chlorine byproduct offtake, and the necessity for rigorous environmental safety testing regarding pH and salinity changes in marine ecosystems.

The document argues that while Europe leads in near-zero emission steel innovation, it faces increasing competition from China and the MENA region. It calls for urgent policy action in 2024, specifically recommending the phase-out of coal-fired blast furnaces and the advancement of hydrogen-based green steel to secure jobs and industrial resilience. The text also critiques the Commission's Steel and Metals Action Plan (SMAP) for lacking input from environmental NGOs.

Global climate finance reached a record USD 1.9 trillion in 2023, with private contributions exceeding USD 1 trillion for the first time. While mitigation finance more than doubled between 2018 and 2023, driven by energy and transport, adaptation finance remains significantly underfunded at USD 65 billion. Investment is heavily concentrated in East Asia and the Pacific, Western Europe, and North America, with 80% of finance sourced domestically. Despite growth, a substantial gap remains to meet the estimated annual need of USD 6.3 trillion by 2030.

Global climate finance reached USD 1.46 trillion in 2022, showing resilience despite global crises. While advanced economies saw steady growth driven by domestic policy and stimulus, emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) experienced inconsistent trends, with significant recoveries in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia between 2020 and 2022. Private sector contributions to mitigation finance exceeded 50% in several EMDE regions, and finance to least developed countries (LDCs) more than doubled from 2018 to 2022.

Tracked urban climate finance reached USD 831 billion in 2021/2022, more than doubling since 2017/2018. However, this remains severely insufficient compared to estimated annual mitigation needs of USD 4.3 trillion by 2030. Finance is heavily concentrated in developed economies and China, with critical gaps in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While mitigation flows are dominated by transport and buildings, adaptation finance is significantly lower at USD 10 billion, primarily focused on water and wastewater. The report advocates for a '4C Urban Climate Finance Agenda'—Commitment, Collaboration, Capacity, and Capital Mobilization—to bridge the investment gap.

The report finds that while urban climate finance more than doubled to USD 831 billion in 2021/2022, it must increase more than fivefold to align with a 1.5°C pathway. Mitigation needs are dominated by transport, energy, and buildings, with a significant financing gap particularly in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). The document identifies systemic challenges including weak enabling environments and city-level capacity gaps, and proposes the '4C Urban Climate Finance Agenda' (Commitment, Collaboration, Capacity, and Capital Mobilization) to scale investment.

The document presents an Evidence Gap Map (EGM) developed by SEforALL and 3ie to guide policymakers and researchers toward rigorous evidence on sustainable energy in low- and middle-income countries (L&MICs). Based on a search of 22 academic databases and 29 grey literature sources, the EGM includes 703 studies (668 impact evaluations and 35 systematic reviews). The evidence base is geographically skewed, with nearly half of the impact evaluations focused on China or India, and significant gaps exist for countries with the most pressing electrification needs, such as Burundi and South Sudan. While improved cookstoves are the most evaluated technology, there is a total lack of rigorous evidence for interventions involving insurance, risk guarantee instruments, push and pull finance, and advocacy and diplomacy.

The G7 is urged to set a goal to triple its renewable energy capacity by 2030, as current collective targets only aim for a doubling. This alignment is presented as necessary to meet the global goal agreed upon at COP28 and to keep the 1.5C temperature goal within reach.

The report highlights a contradictory global trend: while most countries are reducing coal construction and many are committing to phase-outs, global coal capacity increased by 11% since 2015, reaching a record high in 2023. This growth is driven primarily by China, which accounted for two-thirds of the 2023 increase. Outside China, new construction starts reached their lowest level since 2015. The report notes that only 15% of global operational capacity has a documented phase-out plan aligned with the 1.5°C goal. Regional analyses show significant progress in the EU and UK, though some countries lag behind 2030 targets, and a volatile situation in Sub-Saharan Africa where South Africa remains heavily dependent on coal despite an energy crisis.