State Futures in the Global South Research Design

The research design for 'State Futures in the Global South' integrates the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI), expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze governance outcomes. The methodology involves benchmarking governance performance across six dimensions and incorporating regional perspectives from Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia to validate scenario assumptions and identify emerging risks.

• The research utilizes the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) to benchmark and compare state governance across six dimensions: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.
• The methodology incorporates a series of expert workshops to provide regional perspectives and validate scenario assumptions, including a methodology workshop in March 2024 with 40 experts, a Global North workshop in June 2024 with 13 experts, and regional workshops for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and Asia.
• The study employs a horizon scan to systematically analyze political, social, technological, economic, and environmental trends that influence the future of state governance in the Global South.
• The analysis is structured around four global scenarios developed by the AFI-ISS, which serve as a framework to explore how state governance in the Global South evolves under different geopolitical, economic, and social conditions.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2026). State Futures in the Global South Research Design. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. State Futures in the Global South Research Design. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=State Futures in the Global South Research Design |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026state, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{State Futures in the Global South Research Design}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }