State Futures in the Global South Research Design

This research design document outlines the multi-method approach used by the Institute for Security Studies to assess state governance trends and future trajectories in the Global South. The methodology integrates World Bank governance indicators, expert workshops, horizon scanning, and a four-scenario framework to analyze how geopolitical, economic, and social forces influence the role of the state.

• The research employs a multi-method design that combines expert workshops and foresight methodologies to analyze state governance in the Global South. This includes a horizon scan to systematically analyze political, social, technological, economic, and environmental trends that shape governance trajectories.
• The study utilizes the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) to benchmark governance performance and track longitudinal trends. The WGI measures six dimensions: Voice and Accountability, Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism, Government Effectiveness, Regulatory Quality, Rule of Law, and Control of Corruption.
• A series of expert workshops were conducted between March 2024 and March 2025 to provide regional perspectives and validate scenario assumptions. These included a methodology workshop with 40 experts in March 2024, a Global North workshop in June 2024 with 13 experts, and regional workshops for Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with each regional group consisting of 7 to 19 experts.
• The research uses a structural framework of four global scenarios developed by the African Futures and Innovation (AFI)-ISS. These scenarios are used to analyze how state governance in the Global South evolves under different combinations of geopolitical, economic, and social forces.

APA

Cilliers, J., & van Rooyen, M. (2026). State Futures in the Global South Research Design. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Michelle van Rooyen. State Futures in the Global South Research Design. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=van Rooyen |first2=Michelle |title=State Futures in the Global South Research Design |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=29 March 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026state, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and van Rooyen, Michelle}, title = {{State Futures in the Global South Research Design}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = mar, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=20-futures-of-the-state-in-the-global-south&topic=02-research-design}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }