JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION

The document examines the tension between Africa's significant natural gas resources and the global shift toward net-zero emissions. It argues that while gas provides short-term revenue and energy security, long-term investments face high risks of becoming stranded assets due to declining global demand and the falling costs of renewable energy. The paper advocates for leveraging climate finance to scale up renewables and green hydrogen, which it presents as more sustainable pathways for economic diversification and energy access.

• Global climate targets to limit warming to 1.5°C necessitate a significant reduction in gas use by 2050, with the IPCC estimating a decline of between 20 percent and 60 percent compared to 2019 levels.
• New investments in African gas infrastructure are increasingly risky; modelling indicates that in a Net Zero by 2050 scenario, 72 percent of existing LNG export volumes would be stranded, and new projects in Tanzania and Mozambique would be value-destructive regardless of fiscal terms.
• The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) threatens the trade competitiveness of fossil-fuel-dependent African economies, such as Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, and Mozambique, by levying tariffs on carbon-intensive exports.
• There is a strategic contradiction in Europe using African gas as a short-term stopgap to replace Russian supplies while simultaneously implementing policies that will penalise African fossil-fuel exports in the long term.
• Renewable energy (RE) offers a more viable path for African electrification and industrialisation due to falling global costs and the continent's high technical potential for solar and wind energy.
• Green hydrogen presents a diversification opportunity for countries with existing LNG infrastructure, allowing them to repurpose assets and mitigate revenue losses from declining gas exports.
• The transition to renewables in Africa is constrained by a lack of finance; the IPCC suggests financial flows must increase seven-fold to meet the continent's mitigation needs, requiring highly concessionary climate finance and grants.

APA

African Climate Foundation (2022). JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ACF-GAS-REPORT-V7.indd-final-1.pdf

Chicago

African Climate Foundation. JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION. 2022. https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ACF-GAS-REPORT-V7.indd-final-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=African Climate Foundation |title=JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION |date=August 2022 |url=https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ACF-GAS-REPORT-V7.indd-final-1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{africanclimatefoundation2022just, author = {{African Climate Foundation}}, title = {{JUST ENERGY TRANSITIONS AND NATURAL GAS IN AFRICA: BALANCING CLIMATE ACTION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION}}, institution = {African Climate Foundation}, year = {2022}, month = aug, url = {https://africanclimatefoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/ACF-GAS-REPORT-V7.indd-final-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }