Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040

Algeria's trade is heavily dominated by hydrocarbons, which accounted for 94% of exports in 2017. The country faces significant obstacles to industrialisation and diversification due to the influence of politically connected importers and a lack of regional economic integration within the Maghreb. While the European Union remains its primary trading partner, substantial informal trade exists with Tunisia and Mali, driven by tax and subsidy differentials.

• Algeria's export economy is overwhelmingly dependent on hydrocarbons, including petroleum gas, crude petroleum, and refined petroleum, which represented 94% (€37.4 billion) of total exports in 2017.
• Industrialisation in Algeria is hindered by politically connected corporate barons who utilize state-owned bank credit, energy subsidies, and tax holidays to maintain an import-based business model.
• Regional economic integration in the Maghreb is extremely low, with intra-regional trade accounting for only about 5% of total trade; specifically, only 4% of Algeria's trade occurs within the Maghreb.
• Significant informal trade exists between Algeria and its neighbours, Tunisia and Mali, driven primarily by disparities in taxes and subsidies, such as gasoline being ten times cheaper in Algeria than in Tunisia.
• The European Union is Algeria's largest trading partner and its third-largest supplier of natural gas; however, the report suggests that pursuing a manufacturing-growth path may be difficult without asymmetrical trade arrangements with the EU.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=10-trade

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=10-trade.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=21 September 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=10-trade |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022stagnation, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{Stagnation or Growth? Algeria’s development pathway to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = sep, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/algeria&topic=10-trade}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }