Poised to Lead: How the Middle East and North Africa Can Accelerate the Global Energy Transition

The MENA region is well-positioned to produce zero-carbon fuels due to its abundant solar, wind, and hydrocarbon resources, as well as existing industrial infrastructure. While 'green' hydrogen (from renewables) and 'blue' hydrogen (from natural gas with carbon capture and storage) are both viable, the report argues that hydrocarbon-derived fuels could provide a lower-cost catalytic role in scaling the market. However, significant barriers exist, including a lack of meaningful demand beyond industrial users, the absence of carbon pricing or regulatory requirements to reduce emissions, and a lack of common certification schemes for lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions. The report recommends regional coordination, the development of fuel-neutral procurement policies, and the establishment of comprehensive regulatory frameworks for carbon management to attract investment and ensure environmental integrity.

• The MENA region possesses significant structural advantages for zero-carbon fuel production, including low-cost energy resources, deep water ports, engineering capacities, and a geological CO2 storage capacity estimated at 170 billion tonnes.
• Five primary barriers hinder the wide-scale production of zero-carbon fuels in MENA: a lack of demand beyond current industrial users, no economic incentive for carbon capture and storage (CCS) outside of enhanced oil recovery, no regulatory requirements or carbon pricing for emissions, a lack of certification procedures for fuel emissions, and financing challenges due to higher capital costs and lower returns compared to traditional fuels.
• Hydrocarbon-derived low-emission hydrogen is identified as a likely low-cost catalyst for the global market, particularly for nations with large reserves seeking to preserve the value of their resources, provided that methane leaks are cut to near zero and CCS is regulated for permanence.
• There is a significant cost gap between conventional hydrogen and zero-carbon alternatives. In the Middle East, conventional hydrogen can cost as low as $0.90/kg, while adding CCS may increase this to $1.40/kg, excluding transportation and conversion costs.
• Renewable-based hydrogen costs are higher but projected to decline; estimates for the GCC suggest a drop from $3.5-7.5/kg in 2020 to $1.6-2.2/kg by 2030, while Siemens Energy has targeted $1.50/kg by 2025.
• The European Union's policy environment creates uncertainty for investors due to a preference for renewable hydrogen and a view of blue hydrogen as merely transitional until 2030, with a final certification methodology not expected until the end of 2024.
• Several large-scale projects are underway in the region, including Saudi Arabia's NEOM plant, which aims to produce 0.2 Mt of green hydrogen and 1.2 Mt of green ammonia per year by 2025, and the UAE's solar-driven facility at the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.
• Regulatory frameworks for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in GCC countries are currently incipient, with major gaps in CO2 classification, transboundary CO2 regulation, and storage regulation.

APA

Azadegan, O., Brick, S., Davis, S., & Tovar, M. (2022). Poised to Lead: How the Middle East and North Africa Can Accelerate the Global Energy Transition. Clean Air Task Force. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/23114054/poised-to-lead-middle-east-north-africa-accelerate-global-energy-transition.pdf?swpmtx=09e0f2a5d80924b7a28912e2086052e4&swpmtxnonce=0073d26ec8

Chicago

Azadegan, Olivia, Steve Brick, Stacey Davis, and Magnolia Tovar. Poised to Lead: How the Middle East and North Africa Can Accelerate the Global Energy Transition. Clean Air Task Force, 2022. https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/23114054/poised-to-lead-middle-east-north-africa-accelerate-global-energy-transition.pdf?swpmtx=09e0f2a5d80924b7a28912e2086052e4&swpmtxnonce=0073d26ec8.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Azadegan |first1=Olivia |last2=Brick |first2=Steve |last3=Davis |first3=Stacey |last4=Tovar |first4=Magnolia |title=Poised to Lead: How the Middle East and North Africa Can Accelerate the Global Energy Transition |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=May 2022 |url=https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/23114054/poised-to-lead-middle-east-north-africa-accelerate-global-energy-transition.pdf?swpmtx=09e0f2a5d80924b7a28912e2086052e4&swpmtxnonce=0073d26ec8 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{azadegan2022poised, author = {Azadegan, Olivia and Brick, Steve and Davis, Stacey and Tovar, Magnolia}, title = {{Poised to Lead: How the Middle East and North Africa Can Accelerate the Global Energy Transition}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://cdn.catf.us/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/23114054/poised-to-lead-middle-east-north-africa-accelerate-global-energy-transition.pdf?swpmtx=09e0f2a5d80924b7a28912e2086052e4&swpmtxnonce=0073d26ec8}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }