The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

The annex outlines the technical specifications for forecasting Tunisia's development to 2040. It details data replacements from sources like UNICEF and the National Statistics Bureau, and specifies interventions across four scenarios: a common baseline, 'Going for Growth', 'Leapfrogging', and 'Sustainability & Equality'. These interventions target economic freedom, corruption, education quality, ICT infrastructure, renewable energy, and carbon taxation.

• The report's modeling incorporates common interventions across all three scenarios starting in 2020, including improving economic freedom by roughly 21% and reducing government corruption by nearly 37% by 2025.
• Tunisia is identified as having the second highest portion of GDP allocated to household transfers among lower middle-income countries in Africa, with a specific goal to reduce transfers to the skilled middle and upper class by 3.7 percentage points by 2040.
• The 'Going for Growth' scenario focuses on improving government effectiveness by 32% by 2025, increasing paved roads to 100% by 2040, and boosting export earnings by approximately 48% between 2020 and 2030.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario emphasizes technological and educational advancement, targeting a 138% increase in broadband subscriptions per 100 people by 2025 and an 8.5% increase in the share of science and engineering graduates by 2025.
• The 'Sustainability & Equality' scenario targets a reduction in carbon emissions by roughly 11.5% between 2020 and 2030 through a carbon tax and aims to increase renewable energy production as a percentage of the total by over 36 percentage points by 2030.
• The document notes that Tunisia has the highest level of food wastage compared to other MENA countries and other lower middle-income countries, wasting over US$100 million worth of food, primarily bread.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }