The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040

This document is an annex to a special report titled "The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040," published by the Institute for Security Studies. It details the data sources, adjustments, and specific parameters used in the IFs (International Futures) forecasting model to create three development scenarios for Tunisia: "Common interventions," "Going for Growth," and "Leapfrogging," as well as a "Sustainability & Equality" framework.

• The report identifies several common interventions across all scenarios to improve Tunisia's governance and social services by 2025-2040, including reducing government corruption by nearly 37% and improving economic freedom by roughly 21% by 2025.
• Tunisia is noted for having the second highest portion of GDP allocated to household transfers among lower middle-income countries in Africa, with high fuel subsidies primarily benefiting the middle and upper classes.
• The 'Going for Growth' scenario proposes increasing the percentage of paved roads to 100% by 2040 to align with the global average, and improving government effectiveness by approximately 32% between 2020 and 2025 to address a "very bureaucratic system."
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario focuses on technological and educational advancement, aiming to increase R&D spending by over 11% by 2030 and significantly expanding internet access, including a nearly 138% increase in broadband subscriptions per 100 people between 2020 and 2025.
• Under the 'Sustainability & Equality' framework, the report suggests reducing the capital cost of renewable energy to increase production as a percentage of the total by over 36 percentage points between 2020 and 2030, noting that current high energy and electricity subsidies make renewable investment expensive.
• The document highlights significant food wastage in Tunisia compared to other MENA countries and other lower middle-income countries, specifically noting that the country wastes over US$100 million worth of food, primarily bread.
• The report identifies a deterioration in the quality of education due to inadequate infrastructure and a curriculum that is "out of step with the labour market," proposing improvements to primary and secondary education quality by 14% and 13% respectively by 2030.

APA

Cilliers, J., & Kwasi, S. (2022). The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, and Stellah Kwasi. The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040. Institute for Security Studies, 2022. https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |last2=Kwasi |first2=Stellah |title=The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040 |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=24 June 2022 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2022rebirth, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah}, title = {{The Rebirth: Tunisia’s potential development pathways to 2040}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/special-reports/guide.pdf?report=country/tunisia&topic=16-annex}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }