Winds of Change? The Impact of Non-Western Powers’ Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel

The report analyzes how non-Western powers are extending their influence in Afghanistan and the Sahel through economic, political, and security tools. While China and Russia are the most visible actors, their strategies differ: Russia often employs a 'harder' security-focused approach, while China focuses on 'softer' developmental and economic interests. The document finds that while there are expectations that these powers will fill the vacuum left by Western withdrawals, there is limited evidence that a major power shift has materialized. It concludes that the engagement of autocratic states likely allows for the continuation of existing illiberal tendencies rather than actively exporting them, and recommends that Norway focus on its own unique benefits when engaging with these regions.

• China and Russia are the most active and consequential non-Western actors in both Afghanistan and the Sahel, impacting the regions economically, politically, and in terms of security.
• Russia's strategic goals in the Sahel include increasing weapons exports, maintaining access to natural resources, and countering Western powers; in Afghanistan, it focuses on reclaiming regional hegemony and countering the West.
• China's strategy in the Sahel is primarily driven by economic opportunities, though it has increased security activities to protect its citizens and interests. In Afghanistan, it pursues economic gains while attempting to prevent transnational terrorist movements from threatening its borders.
• Muslim countries, including Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Pakistan, primarily use cultural and religious diplomacy, mediation, and infrastructure building, although Turkey has expanded its security involvement in the Sahel.
• Undemocratic regimes in these regions often prefer aid from non-Western powers because it is typically less conditional than Western aid, and these regimes often play external powers against one another for gain.
• The engagement of autocratic states like China and Russia is more likely to enable the continuation of existing illiberal tendencies in Afghanistan and the Sahel rather than dramatically increasing them.
• Despite expectations that China and Russia would fill the vacuum left by the retreat of Western forces, there is limited evidence that a major shift in roles has actually occurred.
• Russia's capacity to expand its influence in the Sahel and Afghanistan is currently constrained by its resource commitments to the war in Ukraine.

APA

Sandnes, M., & Carrozza, I. (2023). Winds of Change? The Impact of Non-Western Powers’ Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7291a71e-cea9-47d0-ab89-dcac6757a308/Sandnes and Carrozza - Winds of Change The Impact of Non-Western Powers Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel PRIO Paper 2023.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Sandnes, Marie, and Ilaria Carrozza. Winds of Change? The Impact of Non-Western Powers’ Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2023. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7291a71e-cea9-47d0-ab89-dcac6757a308/Sandnes and Carrozza - Winds of Change The Impact of Non-Western Powers Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel PRIO Paper 2023.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sandnes |first1=Marie |last2=Carrozza |first2=Ilaria |title=Winds of Change? The Impact of Non-Western Powers’ Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2023 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7291a71e-cea9-47d0-ab89-dcac6757a308/Sandnes and Carrozza - Winds of Change The Impact of Non-Western Powers Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel PRIO Paper 2023.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sandnes2023winds, author = {Sandnes, Marie and Carrozza, Ilaria}, title = {{Winds of Change? The Impact of Non-Western Powers’ Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2023}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/7291a71e-cea9-47d0-ab89-dcac6757a308/Sandnes and Carrozza - Winds of Change The Impact of Non-Western Powers Engagement in Afghanistan and the Sahel PRIO Paper 2023.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }