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229 results
The Financial Flows Scenario
The Financial Flows scenario models the impact of aggressive but reasonable increases in inward financial flows to Africa. By 2043, the scenario projects aid increasing to US$113.5 billion, FDI reaching 5.3% of GDP, and net remittances reaching US$121.5 billion. The model also conservatively reduces illicit financial outflows by 13% using outward FDI as a proxy. The report notes that while aid primarily benefits low-income countries, FDI growth would require improved political stability and the implementation of the AfCFTA.
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Document type: Research paper
Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures
The report projects that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.976 billion by 2043, with carbon emissions nearly tripling to 650 million tons under the Current Path. While the Current Path sees GDP per capita reach US$5,996, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario—integrating improvements in governance, education, health, and infrastructure—could increase GDP per capita to US$9,798 and drastically reduce extreme poverty to 7.3%. Key sectoral findings include the 'Leapfrogging' scenario's potential to raise electricity access to 81.7% and the 'Free Trade' scenario's role as the most carbon-intensive path, contributing 711 million tons of carbon by 2043.
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Document type: Report
Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures: Current Path
The report forecasts that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.962 billion by 2043, with a significant shift toward urbanization. While regional GDP is projected to increase substantially, reaching between US$6.2 trillion and US$6.7 trillion, GDP per capita growth is tempered by rapid population increases. The region is expected to face increasing food insecurity as agricultural demand outstrips production. Energy production is projected to shift toward renewables, yet total carbon emissions are forecast to rise by over 146% by 2043, with Nigeria expected to overtake South Africa as the region's largest emitter.
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Document type: Report
Angola Development Futures
The report analyzes Angola's economic and social future, highlighting a high risk of increasing extreme poverty and carbon emissions on its current path. While individual sectoral improvements in trade, stability, and manufacturing offer modest gains, a combined 'Agenda 2063' approach is projected to significantly raise GDP per capita and reduce poverty by 2043.
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Document type: Report
The Demographics and Health Scenario
The Demographics and Health Scenario explores the impact of targeted interventions in family planning, disease mortality reduction, water and sanitation (WaSH), and child nutrition across Africa. By 2050, the scenario aims to increase modern contraceptive use to 75% in sub-Saharan Africa and 85% in North Africa, while reducing mortality for the top five disease types in each country by 20 percentage points. It also projects an increase in sub-Saharan African average access to safely managed water and sanitation from 29% in 2025 to 61% by 2050. These health improvements are supported by a projected 5% increase in health spending, totaling an additional US$18.9 billion continentwide.
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Document type: Research paper
ECOWAS: Conclusion
The document concludes that while ECOWAS has made progress, its current path is insufficient to address structural challenges such as insecurity, corruption, and economic dependence on commodities. It argues that without aggressive interventions in governance, security, and economic diversification, the region will fail to meet its 2050 sustainability targets. Key recommendations include operationalising the ECOWAS Standby Force Unit, transitioning to renewable energy sources like solar and wind, and implementing the West African Power Pool white paper to create a regional electricity market.
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Document type: Research paper
Remittances to Africa
The document analyzes remittance flows in Africa, noting that in 2023, gross inflows reached approximately US$90 billion. While remittances provide critical household support and macroeconomic stability, the authors warn of a 'remittance trap' and 'Dutch disease' that can hinder long-term economic growth. The paper highlights the use of diaspora bonds in countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria to fund infrastructure, and forecasts that net inflows to Africa will likely increase to US$94 billion by 2043, although their share of GDP is expected to decline.
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Document type: Research paper
Africa’s Demographic Window
The report analyzes Africa's progress toward a demographic dividend, noting that most of the continent is in the early stages of this transition. While 11 countries have already entered a demographic window of opportunity, most others will do so much later, with some regions not reaching the critical 1.7:1 worker-to-dependant ratio until the mid-21st century. The author argues that realizing this dividend requires simultaneous improvements in fertility rates, health, education, and employment systems.
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Document type: Research paper
COMESA Development Futures
The report analyzes the future of COMESA, projecting a population increase to 982.2 million by 2043. While the 'Current Path' shows a decline in extreme poverty from 35.4% to 18.8%, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario suggests a more dramatic reduction to 4.1%. The analysis highlights significant economic disparities, with Egypt remaining the dominant economy and the largest carbon emitter. Sectoral scenarios indicate that free trade and 'leapfrogging' (renewable energy and digital tech) offer the highest potential for GDP per capita growth, though increased economic activity generally correlates with higher carbon emissions.
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Document type: Report
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The document forecasts that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase sub-Saharan Africa's GDP per capita to US$9,798 by 2043, compared to US$5,980 in the Current Path. It predicts a substantial reduction in extreme poverty to 7.3% and a nearly doubled total economy of US$12,295.2 billion. However, this growth is associated with higher carbon emissions, reaching 892 million tons by 2043.
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Document type: Research paper
Botswana: Conclusion
The report evaluates Botswana's potential development paths up to 2043. It concludes that while the 'Current Path' provides incremental progress, it is insufficient to meet Vision 2036 goals due to persistent energy deficits and modest governance improvements. A 'Combined' scenario of integrated reforms—focusing on manufacturing, green energy, and human capital—is proposed to accelerate growth, reduce inequality, and transition the country into a high-income, inclusive society.
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Document type: Report
Cameroon: Conclusion and Recommendations
The report analyzes Cameroon's economic potential and challenges, arguing that while the country shows gradual progress, it remains hindered by dependence on extractive sectors and governance weaknesses. It recommends a coordinated approach to structural reforms focusing on manufacturing, agricultural transformation, and governance to reduce poverty and informality. Specifically, it emphasizes the need for climate-smart agriculture, the utilization of hydroelectric and solar capacity to become a regional energy hub, and the strategic use of the AfCFTA to boost trade and industrialization.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s Population Momentum
Africa's population is projected to grow from 1.552 billion in 2025 to 3.850 billion by 2100, representing 39% of the global population. This growth is driven by high total fertility rates and population momentum, which could position Africa as the world's largest potential labour force by 2040 if supported by education and health investments. Significant disparities persist in life expectancy and fertility rates across the continent, with some nations already below replacement levels while others remain very high.
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Document type: Research paper
Central African Republic Combined Agenda 2063 scenario
The document analyzes the potential for the Central African Republic to significantly increase its GDP per capita and reduce extreme poverty through an intersectoral policy push under the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario. While the scenario predicts substantial economic growth, particularly driven by agriculture and the service sector, it also forecasts a significant increase in carbon emissions due to the carbon-intensive nature of this growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Cabo Verde Development Futures
The report projects that Cape Verde will experience significant urbanisation and GDP per capita growth by 2043, though it remains highly dependent on food imports and tourism. While various sectoral interventions—particularly free trade and manufacturing—could further boost GDP and reduce poverty, they are also projected to increase carbon emissions. The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario suggests a potential GDP increase to US$8.7 billion and a reduction of extreme poverty to 3.6% of the population by 2043.
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Document type: Report
COMESA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, integrating 11 sectoral reforms, is projected to significantly increase COMESA's GDP per capita to US$10,235 by 2043 and nearly eradicate extreme poverty. While driving substantial economic growth, particularly in Malawi and Ethiopia, the scenario is also expected to increase carbon emissions to 380 million metric tons by 2043.
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Document type: Report
NORTH AFRICA DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The Combined Agenda 2063 scenario is projected to significantly increase North Africa's GDP per capita and total GDP by 2043, with the most substantial gains driven by free trade under AfCFTA, manufacturing, and leapfrogging. While the scenario predicts a sharp decline in extreme poverty—particularly in Mauritania and Egypt—it also forecasts a 17% increase in carbon emissions compared to the Current Path, primarily driven by Egypt and Algeria.
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Document type: Research paper
BENIN DEVELOPMENT FUTURES: GEOGRAPHIC FUTURES
The report projects that the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario would significantly increase Benin's GDP per capita to US$7,421 and nearly double the overall economy to US$117.2 billion by 2043. While this path would lift an additional 4.6 million people out of extreme poverty and drive structural transformation toward services and manufacturing, it is also projected to increase carbon emissions to 10.1 million tons, necessitating an accelerated energy transition to mitigate environmental degradation.
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Document type: Report
ECCAS: Conclusion
The report concludes that ECCAS faces deep-rooted structural challenges in agriculture, manufacturing, and electrification that hinder its development. It argues that without aggressive interventions in sectors like renewable energy, infrastructure, and economic diversification, the region will fail to meet its 2043 inclusive development targets.
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Document type: Report
Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects
The document analyzes the relationship between Africa's rapid population growth and its economic development, noting that while the continent's overall economy is projected to grow faster than the global average, high population growth limits gains in GDP per capita. It emphasizes the need for sub-Saharan Africa to achieve a demographic dividend and improve productivity through education and manufacturing to narrow the gap with the global average.
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Document type: Research paper