The Financial Flows Scenario

The Financial Flows scenario models the impact of aggressive but reasonable increases in inward financial flows to Africa. By 2043, the scenario projects aid increasing to US$113.5 billion, FDI reaching 5.3% of GDP, and net remittances reaching US$121.5 billion. The model also conservatively reduces illicit financial outflows by 13% using outward FDI as a proxy. The report notes that while aid primarily benefits low-income countries, FDI growth would require improved political stability and the implementation of the AfCFTA.

• Under the Financial Flows scenario, aid to Africa is projected to increase to US$113.5 billion by 2043, compared to US$104.4 billion on the Current Path. This increase primarily benefits low-income African countries, which would see a 12% increase, while lower-middle-income countries would see only a 1% increase over the Current Path.
• The scenario projects that inward FDI will reach 5.3% of GDP by 2043, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the Current Path of 3.6%. This involves increasing FDI stocks by 79% (US$222 billion) for low-income Africa, 68% (US$703 billion) for lower-middle-income Africa, and 71% (US$211 billion) for upper-middle-income Africa.
• Net remittance inflows are expected to reach US$121.5 billion by 2043 in the Financial Flows scenario, representing a 29% increase (or an additional US$27.5 billion) over the Current Path estimate of approximately US$94 billion.
• To model a reduction in illicit financial flows (IFFs), the scenario uses outward FDI as a proxy, conservatively reducing these outflows by 13%, which equates to US$7 billion.
• The achievement of the projected FDI increases would likely depend on the full implementation of the AfCFTA, an improved business climate, and greater political and economic stability.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Financial Flows Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Financial Flows Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Financial Flows Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026financial, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Financial Flows Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }