The Financial Flows Scenario

This research paper presents the 'Financial Flows scenario', a model using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting platform to assess the impact of increased aid, foreign direct investment (FDI), and remittances, alongside reduced illicit financial flows (IFFs), on Africa's development indicators through 2043.

• The Financial Flows scenario projects that aid to Africa will increase to US$113.5 billion by 2043, compared to US$104.4 billion on the Current Path. This increase primarily benefits low-income African countries, which are projected to see a 12% increase, while lower-middle-income countries see only a 1% increase over the Current Path.
• Under the Financial Flows scenario, inward FDI is projected to reach 5.3% of GDP by 2043, which is 1.7 percentage points higher than the Current Path of 3.6%. This scenario forecasts significant increases in FDI stocks by 2043: a 79% increase (US$222 billion) for low-income Africa, 68% (US$703 billion) for lower-middle-income Africa, and 71% (US$211 billion) for upper-middle-income Africa.
• Net remittance inflows are projected to reach US$121.5 billion by 2043 in the Financial Flows scenario, representing a 29% increase (or an additional US$27.5 billion) over the Current Path estimate of approximately US$94 billion.
• The scenario models a conservative reduction in illicit financial flows (IFFs) by using outward FDI as a proxy, reducing these outflows by 13%, which equates to US$7 billion.
• The model assumes that aid increases start three years after other interventions (which begin in 2027) due to the expected impact of Donald Trump's second presidency, based on the expectation that the US will return as a donor only after his presidency ends.

APA

Yeboua, K., & Cilliers, J. (2026). The Financial Flows Scenario. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario

Chicago

Yeboua, Kouassi, and Jakkie Cilliers. The Financial Flows Scenario. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Yeboua |first1=Kouassi |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=The Financial Flows Scenario |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{yeboua2026financial, author = {Yeboua, Kouassi and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{The Financial Flows Scenario}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=10-financial-flows&topic=06-financial-flows-scenario}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }