Africa’s Population Momentum

Africa's population is projected to grow from 1.552 billion in 2025 to 3.850 billion by 2100, representing 39% of the global population. This growth is driven by high total fertility rates and population momentum, which could position Africa as the world's largest potential labour force by 2040 if supported by education and health investments. Significant disparities persist in life expectancy and fertility rates across the continent, with some nations already below replacement levels while others remain very high.

• Africa's population is growing rapidly and is projected to reach 2.586 billion by 2050 and 3.850 billion by 2100, accounting for 27% and 39% of the global population respectively.
• By 2040, Africa's working-age population (ages 15-64) is expected to be larger than those of India and China combined, potentially making the continent the world's largest labour force.
• The continent's growth is driven by a high average total fertility rate (TFR), which was 4 births per woman in 2025 and is projected to be 2.8 by 2050, remaining higher than any other global region.
• Fertility rates vary significantly by location and country; while Seychelles, Tunisia, Cabo Verde, and Mauritius had below-replacement numbers in 2025, Chad and Somalia remained above six births per woman.
• Life expectancy in Africa was 65.15 years in 2025, with wide disparities between regions; North Africa's life expectancy is 73.5 years, while Lesotho has the lowest global rate at 53 years due to HIV/AIDS.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Population Momentum. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s Population Momentum. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Population Momentum |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Population Momentum}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }