Africa’s Population Momentum

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes Africa's rapid population growth and its implications for the global labor market. It forecasts that Africa's population will reach 3.850 billion by 2100, driven by high fertility rates and population momentum, potentially making the continent the world's largest labor force by 2040.

• Africa's population is experiencing rapid growth, increasing from 284 million in 1960 to 1,552 million in 2025. Projections indicate the population will reach 2.586 billion by 2050 and 3.850 billion by 2100, representing 27% and 39% of the global population respectively.
• By 2040, Africa's working-age population (ages 15-64) is expected to be larger than those of China and India combined, which could establish the continent as a primary global growth pole if supported by job creation, health, and education.
• High fertility rates drive Africa's growth; the average total fertility rate (TFR) was 4 births per woman in 2025 and is projected to be 2.8 by 2050. While most of the continent remains above replacement level (2.1 births per woman), only Seychelles, Tunisia, Cabo Verde, and Mauritius had below-replacement numbers in 2025.
• Life expectancy in Africa varies significantly by region and country. In 2025, the average was 65.15 years, with North Africa averaging 73.5 years. Lesotho has the lowest global rate at 53 years, attributed to the effects of HIV/AIDS.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Population Momentum. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s Population Momentum. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Population Momentum |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Population Momentum}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=01-africas-population-momentum}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }