Angola Development Futures

The report analyzes Angola's economic and social future, highlighting a high risk of increasing extreme poverty and carbon emissions on its current path. While individual sectoral improvements in trade, stability, and manufacturing offer modest gains, a combined 'Agenda 2063' approach is projected to significantly raise GDP per capita and reduce poverty by 2043.

• On the Current Path, Angola's population is projected to nearly double by 2043, reaching 67.4 million, with a high proportion of youth that acts as a drag on growth and development.
• Angola's economy is highly vulnerable to global oil market volatility; while GDP is projected to grow to US$443.3 billion by 2043 on the Current Path, extreme poverty is expected to increase, with over 30 million people living on less than US$3.20 per day by 2043.
• Carbon emissions are projected to rise steadily, with Angola expected to emit 45.1 million tons of carbon by 2043, making it Africa's fifth largest producer of carbon emissions.
• Climate change is expected to decrease annual rainfall by roughly 1% by 2050, with Angola identified as one of seven countries globally that will inevitably see decreased yields of key crops by 2030.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, simulating the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) by 2034, is the most impactful individual scenario for raising average incomes, increasing GDP per capita by approximately US$940 by 2043 compared to the Current Path.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, projects a dramatic increase in GDP per capita to US$16,023 by 2043 and a reduction in the number of extremely poor people to 15 million by 2043.
• Despite the economic benefits of the Combined Agenda 2063 scenario, carbon emissions would increase even more dramatically than on the Current Path due to expanded manufacturing, agriculture, and infrastructure development.
• Angola's agricultural sector is currently underperforming, with food demand projected to reach 77 million metric tons by 2043 while production is expected to stagnate at 40 million metric tons on the Current Path.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Angola Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Angola Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Angola Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026angola, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Angola Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }