ISS African Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides a development forecast for Angola up to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' scenario, based on existing policies and trends, against various sectoral improvement scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economics, poverty, health, and carbon emissions, highlighting Angola's vulnerability to oil market volatility and the challenges of rapid population growth.

• Angola's population is among the youngest and fastest-growing globally, which is projected to hinder potential income growth. The population was 32 million in 2019 and is forecast to nearly double to 67.4 million by 2043 under the Current Path.
• The Angolan economy is the sixth largest in Africa with a 2019 GDP of US$138.8 billion, but it remains highly susceptible to global oil market volatility. While medium- to long-term prospects are optimistic due to urbanization and population growth, the economy recorded negative growth between 2016 and 2020.
• Extreme poverty is pervasive, particularly in rural areas where an estimated 90% of people are poor. In 2019, over 19 million people (three out of five Angolans) lived below the US$3.20 poverty line. On the Current Path, the absolute number of people in poverty is expected to grow, exceeding 30 million by 2043.
• Angola is heavily dependent on carbon-intensive crude oil exports, which accounted for over 95% of export earnings in 2017. Carbon emissions are projected to rise from 12 million tons in 2019 to 45.1 million tons by 2043, potentially making Angola Africa's fifth largest emitter.
• The agricultural sector performs significantly below its potential, with only 0.2% of cropland actually irrigated. On the Current Path, food demand is projected to reach 77 million metric tons by 2043, while production is expected to stagnate at 40 million metric tons, increasing dependence on imports to meet half of domestic demand.
• Education quality and attainment are low; in 2019, the average adult had 6.7 years of education, and nearly one-third of adults had no education (70% of whom were women). Primary and secondary test scores are lower than the average for lower middle-income African countries.
• Infrastructure deficits are severe, particularly in energy; in 2019, less than half of Angolans had electricity, with only 8% of the rural population having access. This forces businesses and residents to rely heavily on diesel or petrol generators.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates 11 sectoral improvements, presents a significantly more optimistic outcome than the Current Path. In this scenario, the number of extremely poor people would fall to 15 million by 2043, and GDP per capita would reach US$16,023.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=AO&topic=current-path}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }