ISS African Futures

This report by the Institute for Security Studies provides development forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa up to 2043. It compares a 'Current Path' scenario—based on existing policies and historical patterns—against eleven sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario. The analysis focuses on demographics, economic growth, extreme poverty, health, and carbon emissions, highlighting the potential for significant improvements in GDP per capita and poverty reduction if integrated policy goals are achieved.

• Under the Current Path forecast, sub-Saharan Africa's population is projected to grow from 1.109 billion in 2019 to 1.976 billion by 2043, driven by high fertility rates. Life expectancy is expected to reach 73 years by 2043, though significant disparities exist, with 2019 figures ranging from 51 years in Lesotho to 75 years in Mauritius.
• The region's economy is expected to expand rapidly on the Current Path, with GDP reaching US$11.847 trillion and GDP per capita hitting US$5,996 by 2043. While Nigeria and South Africa were the largest economies in 2019, their combined share of regional GDP is projected to drop from 49% to 40% by 2043 due to faster growth in Ethiopia, Angola, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya.
• Extreme poverty (defined as US$1.90 per day) remains a critical challenge. In 2019, 7 in 10 people lived in extreme poverty in countries such as South Sudan, Burundi, CAR, Madagascar, and the DR Congo. On the Current Path, the poverty rate is forecast to decline from 40.9% in 2019 to 23.7% in 2043, though the total number of poor people will only decrease from 441.9 million to 395.2 million due to population growth.
• Carbon emissions are projected to nearly triple on the Current Path, rising from 256 million tons in 2019 to 650 million tons by 2043. South Africa was the largest emitter in 2019 (132 million tons), but Nigeria is projected to become the greatest emitter by 2043.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario, focusing on renewable energy and digital technology, could increase electricity access from 44.8% in 2019 to 81.7% by 2043. This represents a 12.5 percentage point increase over the Current Path forecast.
• The 'Agriculture' scenario could significantly reduce food insecurity by increasing crop yields and reducing net agricultural import dependency to 4.8% by 2043, down from 7.8% in 2019. This scenario would lift an additional 79 million people out of extreme poverty by 2043 compared to the Current Path.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, based on the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to increase GDP per capita to US$6,656 by 2043, compared to US$5,980 on the Current Path. However, it is also identified as the most carbon-intensive scenario, contributing 711 million tons of carbon by 2043.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates all eleven sectoral improvements, would result in a drastic reduction of extreme poverty to 7.3% by 2043, compared to 40.8% on the Current Path. Under this scenario, GDP per capita would reach US$9,798 and the total regional economy would grow to US$12,295.2 billion.

APA

Institute for Security Studies (n.d.). ISS African Futures. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Institute for Security Studies. ISS African Futures. n.d. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Institute for Security Studies |title=ISS African Futures |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{instituteforsecuritystudiesndiss, author = {{Institute for Security Studies}}, title = {{ISS African Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }