Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures

The report projects that sub-Saharan Africa's population will grow to 1.976 billion by 2043, with carbon emissions nearly tripling to 650 million tons under the Current Path. While the Current Path sees GDP per capita reach US$5,996, the 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario—integrating improvements in governance, education, health, and infrastructure—could increase GDP per capita to US$9,798 and drastically reduce extreme poverty to 7.3%. Key sectoral findings include the 'Leapfrogging' scenario's potential to raise electricity access to 81.7% and the 'Free Trade' scenario's role as the most carbon-intensive path, contributing 711 million tons of carbon by 2043.

• Under the Current Path forecast, sub-Saharan Africa's population is projected to grow by 78.2% from 1.109 billion in 2019 to 1.976 billion by 2043.
• Carbon emissions in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to increase from 256 million tons in 2019 to 650 million tons by 2043 in the Current Path forecast. South Africa was the largest emitter in 2019 at 132 million tons, followed by Nigeria at 39 million tons.
• The 'Leapfrogging' scenario, focusing on renewable energy and digital technology, could increase electricity access to 81.7% by 2043, which is 12.5 percentage points higher than the Current Path forecast.
• The 'Free Trade' scenario, based on the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), is projected to be the most carbon-intensive scenario, resulting in 711 million tons of carbon by 2043.
• The 'Combined Agenda 2063' scenario, which integrates all eleven sectoral improvements, is projected to increase GDP per capita to US$9,798 and reduce the extreme poverty rate to 7.3% by 2043, compared to a Current Path poverty rate of 40.8%.
• The 'Agriculture' scenario could reduce net agricultural import dependency to 4.8% by 2043, down from 7.8% in 2019, although the region is still projected to remain a net agricultural importer.
• The 'Demographic' scenario could enable sub-Saharan Africa to reach its demographic dividend by 2043, which is eight years earlier than the Current Path forecast.
• In the 'Manufacturing/Transfers' scenario, extreme poverty rates would be 2.64 percentage points lower than the Current Path, lifting 52.6 million additional people out of poverty by 2043.

APA

Jobarteh, M. (2026). Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios

Chicago

Jobarteh, Mustapha. Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Jobarteh |first1=Mustapha |title=Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{jobarteh2026subsaharan, author = {Jobarteh, Mustapha}, title = {{Sub-Saharan Africa Development Futures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/geographic/guide.pdf?geography=S-S-AFR&topic=sectoral-scenarios}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }