Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects

This research paper by Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the relationship between demographic growth and economic prospects in Africa. It highlights that while Africa's overall economic growth is projected to outpace the rest of the world through 2050, rapid population growth limits the gains in GDP per capita, necessitating a demographic dividend and productivity improvements to narrow the global gap.

• Between 2000 and 2025, the African economy grew at an average annual rate of 3.8%, but high population growth resulted in an average GDP per capita increase in purchasing power parity (PPP) of only 1.2%. In contrast, the rest of the world grew at a slower economic rate of 2.9% but achieved a higher GDP per capita growth of 2.2% due to a lower population growth rate of 0.9%.
• The 'Current Path' forecast predicts the African economy will expand by 5% annually from 2026 to 2050, exceeding the 2.6% average for the rest of the world. However, because Africa's population is projected to grow by 2.2% per annum (compared to 0.24% elsewhere), GDP per capita growth in Africa will be approximately 1.6% per annum, which is similar to the expansion rate in the rest of the world.
• Economic growth in developing regions like Africa is primarily driven by moving low-productivity workers from subsistence agriculture or informal activities into more productive jobs. To improve development outcomes, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, the region must accelerate its entry into a demographic dividend and implement productivity enhancements in health, education, trade integration, and manufacturing.
• North Africa is more advanced in its demographic transition than sub-Saharan Africa. The author suggests that Africa should maintain long-term fertility rates above 2.1 children to prevent the population contractions seen in Asia and Europe.

APA

Cilliers, J. (2026). Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects. Institute for Security Studies. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=02-africas-economic-growth-prospects

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie. Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects. Institute for Security Studies, 2026. https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=02-africas-economic-growth-prospects.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cilliers |first1=Jakkie |title=Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=28 May 2026 |url=https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=02-africas-economic-growth-prospects |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2026africas, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{Africa’s Economic Growth Prospects}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2026}, month = may, url = {https://futures.issafrica.org/thematic/guide.pdf?thematic=03-demographic-dividend&topic=02-africas-economic-growth-prospects}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }