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The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while the continent's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the economic shock will likely erase years of progress in poverty reduction and hinder the achievement of 2030 SDGs. The analysis emphasizes that the primary suffering will stem from economic contraction and a resulting debt crisis rather than direct virus mortality. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased health spending, and investment in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure to build long-term resilience.

The report uses the Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) tool to quantify the economic importance of the Saloum Delta's wetlands and mangroves. It compares a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario against interventions such as organic agriculture, mangrove reforestation, road construction, solar cookstoves, and oil extraction. The analysis highlights a significant trade-off: while oil extraction generates massive near-term revenues, it causes substantial losses in ecosystem services. Conversely, nature-based interventions like mangrove restoration and organic agriculture provide long-term economic gains through enhanced ecosystem performance and labour income. The report also proposes blended finance strategies, including carbon offsets and impact bonds, to fund conservation.

The report demonstrates that the S’Ena Arrubia and Corru S’Ittiri-Marceddì-San Giovanni wetlands provide substantial economic value through ecosystem services and the support of local aquaculture, tourism, and agriculture. It finds that a 'continued degradation' scenario would lead to significant losses in labour income and ecosystem service value, while a circular business model for reusing livestock manure could generate net benefits of EUR 81.3 million for S’Ena Arrubia and EUR 124.2 million for Corru S’Ittiri-Marceddì-San Giovanni. The analysis argues that the cost of maintaining these wetlands is far lower than the cost of replacing their functions with built infrastructure.

Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), this research note assesses how different GDP outlooks from Goldman Sachs, the EIA, and the IMF affect U.S. energy demand and emissions. It finds that while 2020 emissions may drop by 7% to 11% relative to 2019, these reductions are primarily driven by the transportation sector and are expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, resulting in no material impact on cumulative emissions through 2050.

The report examines the Mongolian electricity sector's transition toward the Paris Agreement goals and the public health costs of coal power. It highlights that planned coal capacity expansions, particularly the Shivee Ovoo plant, would significantly increase premature deaths and years of life lost by 2050, while noting that Mongolia requires international financial and technical support to implement renewable energy and decouple heat and electricity supply.

The report finds that South Africa is on a pathway of economic divergence from its middle-income peers due to poor human capital, lack of investment, and an electricity crisis. It proposes the 'Thuma Mina' scenario, which suggests that targeted structural interventions in five key sectors could increase average incomes by 60% by 2044 compared to a 24% increase on the current path. Key recommendations include solving the electricity crisis, improving the quality of health and education, and revitalising manufacturing through increased foreign and domestic investment.

The report evaluates the energy transition in Argentina's power sector, highlighting the need to align long-term Paris Agreement temperature goals with NDC processes to avoid carbon lock-in. It identifies opportunities for leadership in renewables-based hydrogen and synthetic fuels, while noting that grid limitations are the primary short-term barrier to increasing renewable energy participation.

The report argues that India's flexibility needs are growing faster than its energy demand, which could impede the deployment of renewable energy if not addressed. It identifies three primary flexibility resources: demand-side response (e.g., agricultural pumping, air conditioning, and industrial loads), improved thermal and hydroelectric powerplant operations, and energy storage (specifically lithium-ion batteries and pumped hydro). The analysis demonstrates that a 'balanced portfolio' combining these resources can reduce total system electricity costs by 5% to 8% and carbon emissions by 8% to 12% compared to a base case. Regional analysis shows that states like Karnataka and Tamil Nadu face more acute ramping and seasonal flexibility challenges due to high solar and wind penetration, while Uttar Pradesh could potentially export flexibility. The report concludes that achieving these goals requires significant reforms in market design, data collection, infrastructure, and business models.

The report evaluates global security threats under two warming scenarios: a 'Near Term' scenario (1-2°C) and a 'Medium-Long Term' scenario (2-4+°C). It concludes that even low levels of warming present high to very high risks, while higher warming levels pose catastrophic and potentially irreversible threats to global stability. The analysis is structured around U.S. Geographic Combatant Command areas, detailing how climate-induced physical shocks and social tensions act as threat multipliers that can lead to state failure, resource conflict, and the breakdown of international alliances.

The report examines the deep links between California's water and energy sectors, noting that water services account for approximately 20% of electricity and 30% of natural gas consumption, while hydropower provides an average of 15% of electricity. Using WEAP and LEAP modeling, the study finds that water conservation and potable reuse can reduce energy demands and costs, whereas desalination increases them. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2045, the report emphasizes the necessity of massive growth in solar, wind, and energy storage, alongside the continued role of low-cost hydropower. It also warns that federal policy interference could increase electricity production costs by $23 billion and raise CO2 emissions by 16% compared to the state's policy baseline.

The Global Futures project uses a new integrated environment-economy model to quantify the economic risks of biodiversity loss. Under a 'Business-as-Usual' scenario, the loss of six key ecosystem services is projected to reduce annual global GDP by 0.67% by 2050, totaling a cumulative loss of US$ 9.87 trillion. Conversely, a 'Global Conservation' scenario could result in a net annual gain of US$ 490 billion compared to the BAU scenario. The report highlights that low-income countries and coastal infrastructure in high-income nations are most vulnerable, and recommends a 'New Deal for Nature and People' including the protection of 30% of land and oceans.

The report assesses a proposed Public Bicycle Sharing (PBS) system in Dwarka, New Delhi, using the SAVi methodology to value nine externalities. While a conventional cost-benefit analysis shows the project is financially deficient due to high capital and operational costs relative to user fees, the integrated SAVi analysis reveals significant societal net benefits across three demand scenarios. These benefits include improved public health, reduced air and noise pollution, lower CO2 emissions, and increased retail and property values. The findings suggest that the PBS system is a worthwhile investment from a societal perspective and provides benchmark values for the municipality to invest in supporting bicycle and safety infrastructure.

The Drawdown Review 2020 argues that the world can reach Drawdown by the mid-2040s to mid-2060s by scaling existing technologies and practices. The framework categorizes solutions into reducing emission sources, supporting carbon sinks, and improving society. The report emphasizes that the financial benefits of these solutions, with operational savings exceeding implementation costs four to five times over, outweigh the costs of action.

The report argues that a solution to the Cyprus problem would significantly boost the island's economy by expanding market access, increasing productivity, and attracting investment. Using sectoral and total factor productivity (TFP) methodologies, the authors project that a settlement could increase the total GDP by between €11 billion and €17.4 billion over 20 years compared to the status quo. Key growth drivers include tourism, construction, shipping, and professional services. The report also emphasizes that maximizing this dividend requires strong inclusive institutions, technical transition periods, and a concerted effort to close the gender gap in the workforce, particularly in the Turkish Cypriot community. Additionally, it assesses the financial viability of property restitution, suggesting that a significant portion of compensation costs could be covered by the increased state revenues generated by the peace dividend.

The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO6) projects that ASEAN's energy demand will grow significantly by 2040, driven by GDP and population growth. While the region currently relies heavily on fossil fuels, the report models four scenarios—Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)—to evaluate the impact of national and regional policies. The APS is the only scenario that meets the APAEC target of a 23% renewable energy share in total primary energy supply (TPES) by 2025. Key findings highlight the potential for solar PV growth, the necessity of improving air conditioner efficiency, the role of biofuels in transport, and the importance of the ASEAN Power Grid for regional integration. The report also emphasizes the social and environmental costs of continued fossil fuel reliance, noting that ambitious policies could sharply reduce GHG emissions and social costs.

The report evaluates Nepal's future energy options, finding that while hydropower remains central, integrating wind, solar, and battery storage can enhance system flexibility and support river conservation. Using the SWITCH model, the study demonstrates that strategic conservation of rivers, such as the Karnali basin, can be achieved with minimal impact on overall system costs. It also highlights the risks of relying solely on hydropower, noting that such a strategy increases costs by 10.7% and requires significant overbuilding of capacity to meet dry-season demand. The analysis further indicates that imports from India are critical for affordability, as eliminating them would increase system costs by approximately 45%. Additionally, the report explores regional equity and export strategies, suggesting that a diversified energy mix can support social goals and potential profitability if export prices exceed 30 $/MWh.

The report details the creation of the Hong Kong Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), an open-source system-dynamics model used to project energy-related CO2 emissions and evaluate policy combinations through 2050. It compares a 'Current Policy Scenario' with a 'Decarbonization Scenario,' demonstrating that while current trends project emissions to drop from 36 million tonnes in 2017 to 22.5 million tonnes by 2050, a targeted decarbonization strategy could reduce them to approximately 5 million tonnes. Key levers for this reduction include carbon capture and storage (CCS), electric vehicle mandates, and increased imports of renewable energy from Mainland China.

The report outlines a 'Reinventing Fire' scenario for China to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and carbon emissions by 2050. By prioritizing demand reduction, electrification, and a shift to non-fossil energy, China could maintain GDP growth while reducing primary energy demand to 2010 levels. Key strategies include structural industrial shifts, passive building design, multimodal transportation optimization, and a three-stage transition of the power sector from coal to renewables. The analysis suggests this transition is cost-effective, with a potential net present value savings of 21 trillion RMB.

The IRP 2019 identifies an immediate risk of power shortages in South Africa due to the declining energy availability factor (EAF) of Eskom's fleet and the decommissioning of old coal plants. To mitigate this, the plan recommends a medium-term power purchase programme, the life extension of the Koeberg nuclear plant to 2044, and the continued operation of plants despite minimum emission standard non-compliance. Long-term, the plan envisions a diversified energy mix shifting from coal toward renewables, gas, and nuclear, while emphasizing a 'just transition' to protect jobs and local economies. It specifically proposes 2,500 MW of new nuclear capacity and the integration of the Grand Inga Hydropower Project from the DRC.

The report assesses Ethiopia's development path to 2040, highlighting a tension between rapid GDP growth and lagging human development indicators. While the country has seen significant improvements in health and agricultural yields, it faces critical bottlenecks in primary education completion, basic infrastructure (WASH), and gender equality. The analysis warns that political liberalisation may create short-term instability due to ethnic factionalism and an 'anocratic' regime type. The report contrasts a positive 'Abiynomics' scenario, driven by targeted investments in human capital and governance, with a 'Dark Days' scenario characterized by political regression and economic decline.