Exploring the impact of COVID-19 in Africa: a scenario analysis to 2030

The report analyzes three economic recovery scenarios (V, U, and L-shaped) for Africa following the COVID-19 pandemic. It finds that while the continent's youthful population may mitigate direct mortality, the economic shock will likely erase years of progress in poverty reduction and hinder the achievement of 2030 SDGs. The analysis emphasizes that the primary suffering will stem from economic contraction and a resulting debt crisis rather than direct virus mortality. Key recommendations include urgent debt relief, increased health spending, and investment in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure to build long-term resilience.

• The report models three recovery scenarios for Africa's GDP growth: a V-shaped (rapid recovery in 2021), a U-shaped (recovery by 2022), and an L-shaped (recovery by 2023). The V-scenario forecasts an average growth rate of 3.2% to 2030, compared to a pre-COVID reference of 3.8%.
• COVID-19 is projected to significantly increase extreme poverty (those living below US$1.90 per day). By 2030, the number of people in extreme poverty is forecast to rise from 570 million in the reference scenario to 603 million (V), 615 million (U), or 631 million (L).
• Africa's youthful demographic, with a median age below 20 years, is expected to result in lower mortality rates compared to other regions, though this advantage is partially offset by high levels of comorbidity and low health system capacity.
• The continent faces a severe fiscal crisis due to low tax-to-GDP ratios and high debt burdens. Africa spends approximately US$40 billion annually on debt servicing, and the pandemic is likely to trigger a debt crisis or defaults in some countries.
• Cumulative reductions in health expenditure by 2030 are forecast at US$112 billion (V), US$157 billion (U), and US$191 billion (L) relative to the reference scenario, which may increase deaths from other communicable diseases like malaria, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis.
• Poor access to Water, Sanitation and Hygiene (WASH) infrastructure hinders the pandemic response. In 2019, the average percentage of the African population with improved water access was 78%, compared to 96% globally.
• The pandemic may accelerate positive structural transformations, including the adoption of digital economies and a transition to renewable energy, as fossil fuel investments decline globally.

APA

Cilliers, J., Oosthuizen, M., Kwasi, S., Alexander, K., Pooe, T., Yeboua, K., & Moyer, J. D. (2020). Exploring the impact of COVID-19 in Africa: a scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2020-06-25-other-covid-africa-2030.pdf

Chicago

Cilliers, Jakkie, Marius Oosthuizen, Stellah Kwasi, Kelly Alexander, TK Pooe, Kouassi Yeboua, and Jonathan D Moyer. Exploring the impact of COVID-19 in Africa: a scenario analysis to 2030. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2020-06-25-other-covid-africa-2030.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{cilliers2020exploring, author = {Cilliers, Jakkie and Oosthuizen, Marius and Kwasi, Stellah and Alexander, Kelly and Pooe, TK and Yeboua, Kouassi and Moyer, Jonathan D}, title = {{Exploring the impact of COVID-19 in Africa: a scenario analysis to 2030}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = jun, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/2020-06-25-other-covid-africa-2030.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }