ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID-19 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

Using the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), this research note assesses how different GDP outlooks from Goldman Sachs, the EIA, and the IMF affect U.S. energy demand and emissions. It finds that while 2020 emissions may drop by 7% to 11% relative to 2019, these reductions are primarily driven by the transportation sector and are expected to rebound to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, resulting in no material impact on cumulative emissions through 2050.

• Depending on the severity of the GDP shock, U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2020 are projected to be between 7 and 11 percent lower than 2019 levels.
• The reduction in emissions is primarily driven by the transportation sector, which is twice as sensitive to COVID-19 impacts as commercial buildings and approximately 30% more sensitive than industry.
• The short-term emissions drops are expected to be temporary; emissions will likely return to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2025 and will not significantly affect annual emissions in 2030 or cumulative emissions by 2050.
• The analysis observed immediate effects on the U.S. energy system, including petroleum consumption reaching its lowest point in decades and electricity demand falling, with regional variations such as a 14 percent decline in New York City compared to a 5 percent decline in the Mid-Atlantic region.

APA

MAHAJAN, M. (2020). ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID-19 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN. ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID-19 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2020. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |title=ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID-19 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=May 2020 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2020estimating, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN}, title = {{ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID-19 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2020}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }