ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID9 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR

This research note by Energy Innovation uses the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS) to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. By analyzing three different GDP outlooks from Goldman Sachs, the EIA, and the IMF, the author finds that while 2020 emissions are projected to drop significantly, these reductions are short-term and will not materially affect cumulative emissions through 2050.

• U.S. emissions in 2020 are projected to decrease by 7 to 11 percent relative to 2019 levels, depending on the severity of the GDP shock.
• The reduction in emissions is primarily driven by the transportation sector, which is twice as sensitive to COVID-19 impacts as commercial buildings and approximately 30 percent more sensitive than industry.
• The emissions impacts of COVID-19 are expected to be temporary; emissions will likely return to pre-pandemic levels by 2025 and will not significantly alter annual emissions in 2030 or cumulative emissions by 2050.
• Immediate effects of the pandemic include petroleum consumption reaching its lowest point in decades and steep declines in electricity demand, though regional variation exists; for example, New York City saw a 14 percent decline compared to a 5 percent decline for the Mid-Atlantic region.

APA

MAHAJAN, M. (2020). ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID9 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf

Chicago

MAHAJAN, MEGAN. ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID9 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR. Energy Innovation, 2020. https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=MAHAJAN |first1=MEGAN |title=ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID9 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR |publisher=Energy Innovation |date=May 2020 |url=https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahajan2020estimating, author = {MAHAJAN, MEGAN}, title = {{ESTIMATING U.S. ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS IMPACTS OF COVID9 WITH THE ENERGY POLICY SIMULATOR}}, institution = {Energy Innovation}, year = {2020}, month = may, url = {https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Modeling-COVID-Impacts-On-US-Emissions.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }