REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA

The report outlines a 'Reinventing Fire' scenario for China to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and carbon emissions by 2050. By prioritizing demand reduction, electrification, and a shift to non-fossil energy, China could maintain GDP growth while reducing primary energy demand to 2010 levels. Key strategies include structural industrial shifts, passive building design, multimodal transportation optimization, and a three-stage transition of the power sector from coal to renewables. The analysis suggests this transition is cost-effective, with a potential net present value savings of 21 trillion RMB.

• Under the Reinventing Fire Scenario, China's primary energy demand in 2050 is projected to be within 1% of its 2010 levels, representing a 47% reduction compared to the Reference Scenario, while still supporting desired economic growth.
• The Reinventing Fire pathway enables China to peak coal use 14 years earlier and 30% lower, CO2 emissions 11 years earlier and 34% lower, and primary energy use 5 years earlier and 33% lower than the Reference Scenario.
• By 2050, non-fossil, non-emitting electricity sources are projected to provide 82% of China's electricity needs, with renewable sources alone meeting 68% of demand on an absolute basis.
• The industrial sector is identified as the most critical for controlling overall energy growth, with the Reinventing Fire Scenario projecting a 30% absolute reduction in industrial primary energy consumption by 2050 relative to 2010 levels.
• In the buildings sector, the Reinventing Fire Scenario projects a 56% reduction in 2050 primary energy consumption compared to the Reference Scenario, with primary energy use peaking in 2031.
• The transportation sector's primary energy demand is projected to peak in 2035 and fall to 840 Mtce by 2050, which is approximately half of the demand projected in the Reference Scenario.
• Implementation of the Reinventing Fire Scenario is estimated to yield a net present value savings of 21 trillion RMB (approximately $3.1 trillion in 2010 real terms), based on fuel savings of 56 trillion RMB minus 35 trillion RMB in incremental investment.
• China's energy and carbon intensities are projected to decrease significantly by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, with energy intensity decreasing by 87% and carbon intensity by 93%.
• Total emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) are projected to drop by 85% and 90% respectively by 2050 compared to 2010 levels, reaching levels 25–30% below those of the U.S. and EU.
• The power sector transition is proposed in three stages: minimizing coal use and peaking pollutants by 2025, rapidly decarbonizing supply by 2035, and phasing out fossil fuels by 2050.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2019). REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/reinventing_fire_china_full_report.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA. 2019. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/reinventing_fire_china_full_report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA |date=November 2019 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/reinventing_fire_china_full_report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute2019reinventing, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{REINVENTING FIRE: CHINA}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/reinventing_fire_china_full_report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }