The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2017-2040

The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO6) projects that ASEAN's energy demand will grow significantly by 2040, driven by GDP and population growth. While the region currently relies heavily on fossil fuels, the report models four scenarios—Baseline, AMS Targets (ATS), APAEC Targets (APS), and Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)—to evaluate the impact of national and regional policies. The APS is the only scenario that meets the APAEC target of a 23% renewable energy share in total primary energy supply (TPES) by 2025. Key findings highlight the potential for solar PV growth, the necessity of improving air conditioner efficiency, the role of biofuels in transport, and the importance of the ASEAN Power Grid for regional integration. The report also emphasizes the social and environmental costs of continued fossil fuel reliance, noting that ambitious policies could sharply reduce GHG emissions and social costs.

• In the Baseline Scenario, ASEAN's total primary energy supply (TPES) is projected to grow by 154% between 2017 and 2040, reaching 1,589 Mtoe, with fossil fuels accounting for 83.8% of the mix by 2040.
• The APAEC Targets Scenario (APS) is the only model that achieves the regional goal of 23% renewable energy in TPES by 2025, with the share continuing to grow to 28.7% by 2040.
• To meet the 2025 APAEC target, ASEAN must aggressively expand solar PV capacity from 32 GW in 2020 to 83 GW by 2025.
• The APS scenario projects a 32.5% reduction in energy intensity by 2025 and nearly 50% by 2040, compared to a 23.3% reduction in the Baseline Scenario by 2025.
• Energy-related GHG emissions in the Baseline Scenario are projected to reach 4,171 Mt CO2-eq by 2040, whereas the APS reduces this to 2,264 Mt CO2-eq.
• The social cost of energy is projected to be USD 1,558 billion by 2040 in the Baseline Scenario, but could be reduced to USD 766 billion under the APS targets.
• The ASEAN Power Grid (APG) can enhance energy security and RE integration; 7 of 16 key interconnection projects were completed by 2019, bringing cross-border capacity to 2,275 MW.
• Air conditioning (AC) ownership is projected to rise to 42% of ASEAN households by 2040, with Indonesia expected to be the largest consumer of electricity for AC.
• Biofuel use could rise from 5 Mtoe in 2017 to 101 Mtoe by 2040 in the APS, significantly reducing oil import dependency in the transport sector.
• As of 2017, approximately 60 million households (240 million people) in ASEAN relied on traditional biomass or kerosene for cooking, leading to an estimated 345,000 premature deaths in 2016 due to household air pollution.
• Power sector investment requirements from 2018 to 2025 are USD 281 billion in the Baseline Scenario, rising to USD 367 billion in the APS due to the higher cost of cleaner technologies.
• The APS scenario could create 303,000 solar and wind jobs by 2040, compared to approximately 174,000 jobs in the Baseline or ATS scenarios.

APA

Stockholm Environment Institute (2020). The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2017-2040. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO6.pdf

Chicago

Stockholm Environment Institute. The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2017-2040. 2020. https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO6.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Stockholm Environment Institute |title=The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2017-2040 |date=2020 |url=https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO6.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stockholmenvironmentinstitute20206th, author = {{Stockholm Environment Institute}}, title = {{The 6th ASEAN Energy Outlook 2017-2040}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2020}, url = {https://cdn.leap.sei.org/documents/AEO6.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }