GLOBAL FUTURES ASSESSING THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE TO SUPPORT POLICY-MAKING

The Global Futures project uses a new integrated environment-economy model to quantify the economic risks of biodiversity loss. Under a 'Business-as-Usual' scenario, the loss of six key ecosystem services is projected to reduce annual global GDP by 0.67% by 2050, totaling a cumulative loss of US$ 9.87 trillion. Conversely, a 'Global Conservation' scenario could result in a net annual gain of US$ 490 billion compared to the BAU scenario. The report highlights that low-income countries and coastal infrastructure in high-income nations are most vulnerable, and recommends a 'New Deal for Nature and People' including the protection of 30% of land and oceans.

• Under a 'Business-as-Usual' (BAU) scenario, the reduced supply of six specific ecosystem services would cause annual global GDP to drop by 0.67% by 2050, representing an annual loss of US$ 479 billion and a total cumulative loss of US$ 9.87 trillion between 2011 and 2050.
• A 'Global Conservation' (GC) scenario, characterized by sustainable development and the safeguarding of biodiversity-rich areas, would result in annual global GDP being 0.02% higher (US$ 11 billion) by 2050 than a baseline of no change, creating an annual net gain of US$ 490 billion compared to the BAU scenario.
• The loss of nature is expected to drive up prices for key agricultural commodities by 2050 under the BAU scenario, with projected increases for timber (+8%), cotton (+6%), oil seeds (+4%), and fruit and vegetables (+3%).
• Economic impacts are distributed unevenly; low and middle-income countries, particularly in central Asia, South America, and eastern and western Africa, would bear the highest costs. Conversely, China would see a significant annual GDP increase of US$ 43.1 billion under the GC scenario due to its reliance on pollinator-dependent oil crops.
• Loss of coastal protection services (e.g., mangroves and coral reefs) is the most significant risk to global GDP, potentially reducing annual global GDP by 0.46% (US$ 327 billion) by 2050 under the BAU scenario, with high-income countries like the USA, Japan, and the UK facing substantial losses.
• The report recommends a 'New Deal for Nature and People' to reverse biodiversity loss by 2030, specifically advocating that at least 30% of all land, inland waters, and oceans be protected in managed networks.

APA

Roxburgh, T., Ellis, K., Johnson, J. A., Baldos, U. L., Hertel, T., Nootenboom, C., & Polasky, S. (2020). GLOBAL FUTURES ASSESSING THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE TO SUPPORT POLICY-MAKING. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/557/75p5cvk0ul_Summary_Report.pdf

Chicago

Roxburgh, Toby, Karen Ellis, Justin Andrew Johnson, Uris Lantz Baldos, Thomas Hertel, Chris Nootenboom, and Stephen Polasky. GLOBAL FUTURES ASSESSING THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE TO SUPPORT POLICY-MAKING. WWF International, 2020. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/557/75p5cvk0ul_Summary_Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{roxburgh2020global, author = {Roxburgh, Toby and Ellis, Karen and Johnson, Justin Andrew and Baldos, Uris Lantz and Hertel, Thomas and Nootenboom, Chris and Polasky, Stephen}, title = {{GLOBAL FUTURES ASSESSING THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE TO SUPPORT POLICY-MAKING}}, institution = {WWF International}, year = {2020}, month = feb, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/557/75p5cvk0ul_Summary_Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }