South Africa first! Getting to Thuma Mina

The report finds that South Africa is on a pathway of economic divergence from its middle-income peers due to poor human capital, lack of investment, and an electricity crisis. It proposes the 'Thuma Mina' scenario, which suggests that targeted structural interventions in five key sectors could increase average incomes by 60% by 2044 compared to a 24% increase on the current path. Key recommendations include solving the electricity crisis, improving the quality of health and education, and revitalising manufacturing through increased foreign and domestic investment.

• South Africa is currently on a trajectory of economic divergence from both high-income countries and other upper-middle-income countries (OUMICs) through 2044. On the 'Current Path', GDP growth is expected to average 2.15% from 2020–2044, which is significantly lower than the 2.5% expected for OUMICs and 3.8% for High-Growth Middle-Income Countries (High-Growth MICs).
• The most significant structural drag on South Africa's long-term economic growth is a lack of technological sophistication resulting from poor human development, followed by a deficiency in investment capital.
• Human capital is identified as the largest constraint on growth, specifically driven by poor health and education outcomes. Life expectancy in South Africa is more than 12 years below that of its peer groups, and the country's communicable disease death rate is nearly five times higher than those of the OUMICs and High-Growth MICs.
• The education system suffers from severe quality issues and low throughput. Primary school survival rates (87%) are lower than peer averages, and secondary test scores are approximately 20 percentage points below those of peer groups, leaving few students prepared for STEM fields.
• The electricity crisis is the primary immediate constraint on growth until at least 2022. The report argues that a transition toward a renewables-based energy system is the best pathway for the country and is foundational to modern industrialisation.
• The 'Thuma Mina' scenario demonstrates that successful implementation of reforms across health, education, energy, industrialisation, and agriculture could increase average incomes by approximately 60% (US$8,260) per person by 2044, compared to a 24% increase on the Current Path.
• Modern industrialisation, including increased foreign direct investment (FDI) and domestic investment, is viewed as the primary long-term economic game changer for South Africa to revive manufacturing and increase trade.
• Despite the potential of the Thuma Mina scenario, extreme poverty is expected to remain a significant challenge. Even in this best-case scenario, 27 million people are projected to live below the US$5.50 per person per day poverty line by 2044.
• South Africa possesses a 'window of demographic opportunity' as the ratio of working-age people to dependents is forecast to be higher than OUMICs from 2024 and High-Growth MICs from 2028, though this requires health and education interventions to be realised.
• Agricultural and land reform, specifically focusing on tenure security in former homelands and communal areas, is necessary to improve food security and resilience, although it has a smaller overall impact on GDP compared to other sectors.

APA

Markle, A., & Cilliers, J. (2020). South Africa first! Getting to Thuma Mina. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar36.pdf

Chicago

Markle, Alanna, and Jakkie Cilliers. South Africa first! Getting to Thuma Mina. Institute for Security Studies, 2020. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar36.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Markle |first1=Alanna |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |title=South Africa first! Getting to Thuma Mina |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=March 2020 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar36.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{markle2020south, author = {Markle, Alanna and Cilliers, Jakkie}, title = {{South Africa first! Getting to Thuma Mina}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2020}, month = mar, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/sar36.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }