A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

The report evaluates global security threats under two warming scenarios: a 'Near Term' scenario (1-2°C) and a 'Medium-Long Term' scenario (2-4+°C). It concludes that even low levels of warming present high to very high risks, while higher warming levels pose catastrophic and potentially irreversible threats to global stability. The analysis is structured around U.S. Geographic Combatant Command areas, detailing how climate-induced physical shocks and social tensions act as threat multipliers that can lead to state failure, resource conflict, and the breakdown of international alliances.

• Global warming levels of 1-2°C present a 'high-very high' risk to global and homeland security, likely causing intense climate shocks that destabilize vulnerable areas and disrupt key security environments, institutions, and infrastructure.
• Warming levels of 2-4+°C are categorized as a 'very high-catastrophic' threat, potentially leading to a large-scale breakdown of political institutions, economic and resource stability, and civilian and security infrastructure.
• In Africa, near-term warming (1-2°C) is expected to cause rapid loss of rural livelihoods and the growth of violent extremist groups, while long-term warming (2-4+°C) may trigger renewed interstate conflicts over water resources and severe humanitarian crises.
• The Middle East and Central Asia face extreme heat that could exceed human habitability limits in a 2-4+°C scenario, with daily maximums potentially over 60°C (140°F) in some areas.
• In Europe and Russia, near-term warming may fuel ethno-nationalist sentiments and political volatility, while long-term warming could lead to a breakdown in regional political and security cohesion and significant internal displacement.
• The Indo-Asia-Pacific region faces existential risks from sea level rise, with a one-meter rise potentially displacing 37 million people and threatening megacities such as Mumbai, Bangkok, and Jakarta.
• North America faces risks from more intense hurricanes and wildfires in the near term, and potentially catastrophic infrastructure loss in the long term, with sea level rise potentially sinking $507 billion in coastal infrastructure.
• In South and Central America and the Caribbean, climate change is expected to drive agricultural collapse and increase the influence of transnational criminal groups and traffickers as local security institutions are strained.
• Climate change acts as a 'threat-multiplier,' where physical shocks like resource scarcity and extreme weather interact with fragile social and political systems to accelerate existing tensions and instability.
• The report recommends that the world achieve net-zero global emissions as quickly as possible and 'climate-proof' critical infrastructure and institutions to build resilience against unavoidable impacts.

APA

Kate, G. (2020). A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/a-security-threat-assessment-of-climate-change.pdf

Chicago

Kate, Guy,. A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2020. https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/a-security-threat-assessment-of-climate-change.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kate |first1=Guy, |title=A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=February 2020 |url=https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/a-security-threat-assessment-of-climate-change.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kate2020security, author = {Kate, Guy,}, title = {{A SECURITY THREAT ASSESSMENT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2020}, month = feb, url = {https://climateandsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/a-security-threat-assessment-of-climate-change.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }