Emerging giant

The report assesses Ethiopia's development path to 2040, highlighting a tension between rapid GDP growth and lagging human development indicators. While the country has seen significant improvements in health and agricultural yields, it faces critical bottlenecks in primary education completion, basic infrastructure (WASH), and gender equality. The analysis warns that political liberalisation may create short-term instability due to ethnic factionalism and an 'anocratic' regime type. The report contrasts a positive 'Abiynomics' scenario, driven by targeted investments in human capital and governance, with a 'Dark Days' scenario characterized by political regression and economic decline.

• Ethiopia's education system is characterized by a severe bottleneck at the primary level; while gross enrolment is high, primary completion rates are less than half of those in peer countries.
• There is a profound gender gap in education, with Ethiopian women receiving approximately 58% of the schooling that men receive, the largest such gap globally.
• Despite improvements in agricultural productivity, Ethiopia remains highly vulnerable to climate change, specifically the risk of extreme rainfall in the highlands and the potential spread of the coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) into Arabica-producing regions.
• Ethiopia has some of the lowest global access to improved sanitation facilities, which serves as a primary driver for high rates of childhood undernutrition and stunting.
• The country's transition toward political and economic liberalisation may paradoxically increase short-term instability as it moves into an 'anocratic' space, making it more prone to internal conflict than full autocracies or democracies.
• Large-scale public infrastructure projects, such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Ethiopia-Djibouti railway, have driven growth but risk crowding out essential spending on health and education and increasing debt distress.
• Ethiopia possesses a significant 'youth bulge' (population aged 15-29), which presents both a risk for social instability and an opportunity for a 'demographic dividend' if job creation and education are expanded.
• Health outcomes have improved significantly, with life expectancy increasing by nearly 40% since 1990, though the system remains heavily dependent on external funding, which accounted for roughly half of total health spending in 2015.

APA

Donnenfeld, Z., Cilliers, J., Kwasi, S., & Welborn, L. (2019). Emerging giant. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-25-1.pdf

Chicago

Donnenfeld, Zachary, Jakkie Cilliers, Stellah Kwasi, and Lily Welborn. Emerging giant. Institute for Security Studies, 2019. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-25-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Donnenfeld |first1=Zachary |last2=Cilliers |first2=Jakkie |last3=Kwasi |first3=Stellah |last4=Welborn |first4=Lily |title=Emerging giant |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=September 2019 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-25-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{donnenfeld2019emerging, author = {Donnenfeld, Zachary and Cilliers, Jakkie and Kwasi, Stellah and Welborn, Lily}, title = {{Emerging giant}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2019}, month = sep, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-25-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }