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This report provides conclusions and policy recommendations for Mozambique's development trajectory toward 2043. It argues that the 'Current Path' is non-viable due to governance and structural bottlenecks, and proposes an integrated development approach focusing on governance, agricultural productivity, economic diversification, human capital, and climate resilience.

This report provides a conclusion to a study on Guinea's development trajectories to 2043, outlining policy recommendations across eight sectors to accelerate economic and human development. It highlights the critical impact of foreign aid on poverty levels and the need to diversify an economy heavily reliant on mining.

The research paper describes the 'Large Infrastructure and Leapfrogging' scenario for Africa, an optimistic development pathway benchmarked against South Asia and South America. The scenario models the impact of strategic investments in renewable energy and digital infrastructure to accelerate human development and economic productivity by 2050.

This research paper introduces the concept of development leapfrogging within the African context, exploring how the continent can bypass intermediate stages of industrial development by adopting advanced technologies in sectors such as energy, finance, and agriculture.

This research paper by the Institute for Security Studies outlines a proposed 'Energy Policy scenario' for Africa to transition toward a low-emissions energy future. It analyzes the gap between current fossil fuel production and climate targets, the potential for scaling renewables and nuclear energy, and the role of energy efficiency in reducing total demand.

This report evaluates the state of industrialisation in Africa, analyzing the causes of stagnation and premature deindustrialisation while modeling a 'Manufacturing scenario' to forecast the potential economic benefits of scaled-up investment in the sector by 2043.

This research paper presents a 'Manufacturing scenario' for Africa looking ahead to 2043, modelling the potential economic and social impacts of a concerted push toward industrialisation compared to a 'Current Path' (business-as-usual) baseline. The scenario assumes a series of interventions starting in 2027 focused on increased investment, technological advancement, regulatory reform, and higher labour participation.

This report assesses the cost competitiveness and economic impact of firm and dispatchable renewable energy (FDRE)—combining solar, wind, and storage—as an alternative to coal-based power in India through 2050.

The Nigeria Energy Transition & Investment Plan (ETIP) Update (2024) provides a strategic roadmap for Nigeria to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. The plan emphasizes a massive shift toward renewable energy, electric mobility, and clean cooking to address energy poverty and climate goals. It estimates that reaching net-zero will require $500 billion in capital investment above business-as-usual (BAU) levels, which is offset by projected fuel savings of $686 billion.

This research paper by the Stockholm Environment Institute analyzes land use and land cover (LULC) data from 2001, 2011, and 2021 to project outcomes for 2050 in four arid and semiarid counties in Kenya. The study evaluates three scenarios—achieving 10% forest cover, converting forests to croplands, and restoring degraded forests—to guide sustainable land management and meet Kenyan government climate commitments.

This research paper uses the Transport Transition Pathway Explorer (TTPE) to model decarbonisation scenarios for India's transport sector, which accounts for approximately 14% of the country's direct energy-related emissions. The analysis indicates that current trajectories are not Paris-aligned and that achieving net-zero targets by 2050 or 2070 requires a shift toward public electrified rail and significant annual public investment.

This report analyses the development trajectories of the Horn of Africa (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan) up to 2040. It identifies systemic barriers including governance failure, conflict, and climate-induced food insecurity, while modelling an 'Integrated Development Push' scenario to demonstrate how coordinated reforms in governance, agriculture, and human capital could significantly reduce extreme poverty and boost regional GDP.

This research paper by the NewClimate Institute proposes a practical analytical approach to integrate fairness and inclusiveness into decarbonisation strategies and climate action plans to ensure a sustainable transition with broad social and political support.

This executive summary describes a study on the residential cooking sector in Kenya, using scenario modelling to evaluate the links between cooking solutions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, human health, and sustainable development. The study identifies significant mitigation potential and health benefits by transitioning from modern cooking (such as LPG and improved biomass stoves) to clean cooking solutions (electricity, biogas, and bioethanol), while highlighting economic, cultural, and political barriers to this transition.

This research paper uses the O3-modified DSSAT-NWheat crop model to predict wheat yield losses in Mexico resulting from tropospheric ozone (O3) pollution and climate change under the RCP 8.5 scenario for the period 2041 to 2070.

This policy brief by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines the interactions between energy transition and agricultural transformation in Rwanda. Using scenario modelling up to 2050, the authors identify critical resource competition hotspots—particularly regarding water, land, and biomass—and argue that a lack of coordinated planning between sectors threatens the country's sustainable development goals and ecosystem preservation.

This report by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) examines the interdependencies between water, energy, and food security in Rwanda's Akagera Basin. Using a 'nexus toolkit' comprising policy coherence analysis and quantitative scenario modelling (WEAP and LEAP), the study evaluates how national development goals—such as agricultural intensification and energy transition—interact and compete for limited natural resources. The research highlights criticalS significant trade-offs, particularly regarding water availability for irrigation versus hydropower and the persistent risk of deforestation despite efforts to transition to cleaner cooking fuels.

This 2017 briefing by the Stockholm Environment Institute examines energy pathways for Kenya to achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030. It analyzes the trade-offs between low-carbon and high-carbon development, the tension between centralized and decentralized power, and the challenges of transitioning household cooking fuels. The document emphasizes that technical feasibility must be matched by stable policy, transparent benefit-sharing, and early stakeholder engagement to overcome public resistance and financial barriers.

This technical report by the Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, commissioned by Nordic Energy Research, analyzes the potential for Estonia to transition to a carbon-neutral power sector by 2050. It evaluates the current state of Estonia's energy system—which is heavily dependent on oil shale—and uses three quantitative models (LEAP, Balmorel, and EMPS) to simulate various low-carbon scenarios, including the impacts of electrification in transport and heating and the necessary developments in transmission grids and international interconnections.

This briefing document describes the 'From Farms to Regions' project, which developed and tested an integrated landscape assessment and decision-support tool kit to mainstream climate change adaptation into regional planning. Using southeastern Ontario as a primary study area, the project combined qualitative stakeholder engagement with quantitative geospatial modelling via the Envision platform to evaluate future agricultural and environmental scenarios through 2035.